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The Finance Minister, Ms. Nirmala Sitharaman, presented the Union Budget for the financial year 2019-20 in Parliament on July 5, 2019. In the 2019-20 budget, the government presented the estimates of its expenditure and receipts for the year 2019-20. The budget also gave an account of how much money the government raised or spent in 2017-18. In addition, the budget also presented the revised estimates made by the government for the year 2018-19 in comparison to the estimates it had given to Parliament in the previous year’s budget.
What are revised estimates?
Some of the estimates made by the government might change during the course of the year. For instance, once the year gets underway, some ministries may need more funds than what was actually allocated to them in the budget, or the receipts expected from certain sources might change. Such deviations from the budget estimates get reflected in the figures released by the government at later stages as part of the subsequent budgets. Once the year ends, the actual numbers are audited by the Comptroller and Auditor General of India (CAG), post which they are presented to Parliament with the upcoming budget, i.e. two years after the estimates are made.
For instance, estimates for the year 2018-19 were presented as part of the 2018-19 budget in February 2018. In the 2019-20 interim budget presented in February 2019 (10 months after the financial year 2018-19 got underway), the government revised these estimates based on the actual receipts and expenditure accounted so far during the year and incorporated estimates for the remaining two months.
The actual receipts and expenditure accounts of the central government are maintained by the Controller General of Accounts (CGA), Ministry of Finance on a monthly basis. In addition to the monthly accounts, the CGA also publishes the provisional unaudited figures for the financial year by the end of the month of May. Once these provisional figures are audited by the CAG, they are presented as actuals in next year’s budget. The CGA reported the figures for 2018-19 on May 31, 2019.[1] The Economic Survey 2018-19 presented on July 4, 2019 uses these figures.[2]
The budget presented on July 5 replicates the revised estimates reported as part of the interim budget (February 1, 2019). Thus, it did not take into account the updated figures for the year 2018-19 from the CGA.
Table 1 gives a comparison of the 2018-19 revised estimates presented by the central government in the budget with the provisional unaudited figures maintained by the CGA for the year 2018-19.[3]
Table 1: Budget at a Glance: Comparison of 2018-19 revised estimates with CGA figures (unaudited) (Rs crore)
Actuals |
Budgeted |
Revised |
Provisional |
Difference |
|
Revenue Expenditure |
18,78,833 |
21,41,772 |
21,40,612 |
20,08,463 |
-1,32,149 |
Capital Expenditure |
2,63,140 |
3,00,441 |
3,16,623 |
3,02,959 |
-13,664 |
Total Expenditure |
21,41,973 |
24,42,213 |
24,57,235 |
23,11,422 |
-1,45,813 |
Revenue Receipts |
14,35,233 |
17,25,738 |
17,29,682 |
15,63,170 |
-1,66,512 |
Capital Receipts |
1,15,678 |
92,199 |
93,155 |
1,02,885 |
9,730 |
of which: |
|
|
|
|
|
Recoveries of Loans |
15,633 |
12,199 |
13,155 |
17,840 |
4,685 |
Other receipts (including disinvestments) |
1,00,045 |
80,000 |
80,000 |
85,045 |
5,045 |
Total Receipts (without borrowings) |
15,50,911 |
18,17,937 |
18,22,837 |
16,66,055 |
-1,56,782 |
Revenue Deficit |
4,43,600 |
4,16,034 |
4,10,930 |
4,45,293 |
34,363 |
% of GDP |
2.6 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
2.4 |
|
Fiscal Deficit |
5,91,062 |
6,24,276 |
6,34,398 |
6,45,367 |
10,969 |
% of GDP |
3.5 |
3.3 |
3.4 |
3.4 |
|
Primary Deficit |
62,110 |
48,481 |
46,828 |
62,692 |
15,864 |
% of GDP |
0.4 |
0.3 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
|
Sources: Budget at a Glance, Union Budget 2019-20; Controller General of Accounts, Ministry of Finance; PRS.
The 2018-19 provisional figures for revenue receipts is Rs 15,63,170 crore, which is Rs 1,66,512 crore less than the revised estimates. This is largely due to Rs 1,67,455 crore shortfall in centre’s net tax revenue between the revised estimates and the provisional estimates (Table 2).
Major taxes which see a shortfall between the gross tax revenue presented in the revised estimates vis-à-vis the provisional figures are income tax (Rs 67,346 crore) and GST (Rs 59,930 crore). Non-tax revenue and disinvestment receipts as per the provisional figures are higher than the revised estimates.
Table 2: Break up of central government receipts: Comparison of 2018-19 RE with CGA figures (unaudited) (Rs crore)
|
Actuals |
Budgeted |
Revised |
Provisional |
Difference |
Gross Tax Revenue |
19,19,009 |
22,71,242 |
22,48,175 |
20,80,203 |
-1,67,972 |
of which: |
|
|
|
|
|
Corporation Tax |
5,71,202 |
6,21,000 |
6,71,000 |
6,63,572 |
-7,428 |
Taxes on Income |
4,30,772 |
5,29,000 |
5,29,000 |
4,61,654 |
-67,346 |
Goods and Services Tax |
4,42,562 |
7,43,900 |
6,43,900 |
5,83,970 |
-59,930 |
Customs |
1,29,030 |
1,12,500 |
1,30,038 |
1,17,930 |
-12,108 |
Union Excise Duties |
2,59,431 |
2,59,600 |
2,59,612 |
2,30,998 |
-28,614 |
A. Centre's Net Tax Revenue |
12,42,488 |
14,80,649 |
14,84,406 |
13,16,951 |
-1,67,455 |
B. Non Tax Revenue |
1,92,745 |
2,45,089 |
2,45,276 |
2,46,219 |
943 |
of which: |
|
|
|
|
|
Interest Receipts |
13,574 |
15,162 |
12,047 |
12,815 |
768 |
Dividend and Profits |
91,361 |
1,07,312 |
1,19,264 |
1,13,424 |
-5,840 |
Other Non-Tax Revenue |
87,810 |
1,22,615 |
1,13,965 |
1,19,980 |
6,015 |
C. Capital Receipts (without borrowings) |
1,15,678 |
92,199 |
93,155 |
1,02,885 |
9,730 |
of which: |
|
|
|
|
|
Disinvestment |
1,00,045 |
80,000 |
80,000 |
85,045 |
5,045 |
Receipts (without borrowings) (A+B+C) |
15,50,911 |
18,17,937 |
18,22,837 |
16,66,055 |
-1,56,782 |
Borrowings |
5,91,062 |
6,24,276 |
6,34,398 |
6,45,367 |
10,969 |
Total Receipts (including borrowings) |
21,41,973 |
24,42,213 |
24,57,235 |
23,11,422 |
-1,45,813 |
Note: Centre’s net tax revenue is gross tax revenue less share of states in central taxes. Figures for GST include receipts from the GST compensation cess. Note that GST was levied for a nine-month period during the year 2017-18, starting July 2017.
Sources: Receipts Budget, Union Budget 2019-20; Controller General of Accounts, Ministry of Finance; PRS.
While the provisional figures show a considerable decrease in receipts (Rs 1,56,782 crore) as compared to the revised estimates, fiscal deficit has not shown a comparable increase. Fiscal deficit is estimated to be Rs 10,969 crore higher than the revised estimates as per the provisional accounts.
On the expenditure side, the total expenditure as per the provisional figures show a decrease of Rs 1,45,813 crore as compared to the revised estimates. Certain Ministries and expenditure items have seen a decrease in expenditure as compared to the revised estimates made by the government. As per the provisional accounts, the expenditure of the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers’ Welfare and the Ministry of Consumer Affairs, Food and Public Distribution are Rs 22,133 crore and Rs 70,712 crore lower than the revised estimates, respectively. The decrease in the Ministries’ expenditure as a percentage of the revised estimates are 29% and 39%, respectively. The food subsidy according to CGA was Rs 1,01,904 crore, which was Rs 69,394 crore lower than the revised estimates for the year 2018-19 given in the budget documents.
[1] “Accounts of the Union Government of India (Provisional/Unaudited) for the Financial Year 2018-19”, Press Information Bureau, Ministry of Finance, May 31, 2019.
[2] Fiscal Developments, Economic Survey 2018-19, https://www.indiabudget.gov.in/economicsurvey/doc/vol2chapter/echap02_vol2.pdf.
[3] Controller General of Accounts, Ministry of Finance, March 2018-19, http://www.cga.nic.in/MonthlyReport/Published/3/2018-2019.aspx.
In the past few months, retail prices of petrol and diesel have consistently increased to all-time high levels. On October 16, 2021, the retail price of petrol in Delhi was Rs 105.5 per litre, and that of diesel was Rs 94.2 per litre. In Mumbai, these prices were even higher at Rs 111.7 per litre and Rs 102.5 per litre, respectively.
The difference in fuel retail prices in the two cities is due to the different tax rates levied by the respective state governments on the same products. In this blog post, we look at the tax components in the price structure of petrol and diesel, the variation in these across states, and the major changes in taxation of these products in the recent years. We also discuss changes in the retail prices over the past few years and how it compares vis-à-vis the global crude oil prices.
Taxes make up around 50% of the retail price
Public sector Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) revise the retail prices of petrol and diesel in India on a daily basis, according to changes in the price of global crude oil. The price charged to dealers includes the base price set by OMCs and the freight price. As on October 16, 2021, the price charged to dealers makes up 42% of the retail price in the case of petrol, and 49% of the retail price in the case of diesel (Table 1).
The break-up of retail prices of petrol and diesel in Delhi (as on October 16, 2021), shows that around 54% of the retail price of petrol comprises central and states taxes. In the case of diesel, this is close to 49%. The central government taxes the production of petroleum products, while states tax their sale. The central government levies an excise duty of Rs 32.9 per litre on petrol and Rs 31.8 per litre on diesel. These make up 31% and 34% of the current retail prices of petrol and diesel, respectively.
Table 1: Break-up of petrol and diesel retail prices in Delhi (as on October 16, 2021)
Component |
Petrol |
Diesel |
||
Rs/litre |
% of retail price |
Rs/litre |
% of retail price |
|
Price Charged to Dealers |
44.4 |
42% |
46.0 |
49% |
Excise Duty (levied by centre) |
32.9 |
31% |
31.8 |
34% |
Dealer Commission (average) |
3.9 |
4% |
2.6 |
3% |
Sales Tax/ VAT (levied by state) |
24.3 |
23% |
13.8 |
15% |
Retail Price |
105.5 |
100% |
94.2 |
100% |
Note: Delhi levies 30% VAT on petrol and 16.75% VAT on diesel.
Sources: Indian Oil Corporation Limited; PRS.
While excise duty rates are uniform across the country, states levy sales tax/ Value Added Tax (VAT) which varies across states. For instance, Odisha levies 32% VAT on petrol, while Uttar Pradesh levies 26.8% VAT or Rs 18.74 per litre, whichever is higher. Refer to the table 3 in annexure for sales taxes/VAT levied across the country. The figure below shows the different tax rates levied by states on petrol and diesel. In addition to the tax rates shown in the graph, many state governments, such as Tamil Nadu, also levy certain additional levies such as cess (Rs 11.5 per litre).
Figure 1: Sales tax/VAT rates levied by states on petrol and diesel (as on October 1, 2021)
Note: The rates shown for Maharashtra are averages of the rates levied in the Mumbai-Thane region and in the rest of the state. Only percentages are being shown in this graph.
Sources: Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell, Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas; PRS.
Note that unlike excise duty, sales tax is an ad valorem tax, i.e., it does not have a fixed value, and is charged as a percentage of the price of the product. This implies that while the value of excise duty component of the price structure is fixed, the value of the sales tax component is dependent on the other three components, i.e., price charged to dealers, dealer commission, and excise duty.
Retail prices in India compared to global crude oil price
India’s dependence on imports for consumption of petroleum products has increased over the years. For instance, in 1998-99, net imports of petroleum products were 69% of the total consumption, which increased to around 95% in 2020-21. Because of a large share of imports in the domestic consumption, any change in the global price of crude oil has a significant impact on the domestic prices of petroleum products. The two figures below show the trend in the price of global crude oil and retail prices of petrol and diesel in India, over the last nine years.
Figure 2: Trend of the global crude oil price vis-à-vis retail prices of petrol and diesel (in Delhi)
Note: Global Crude Oil Price is for the Indian basket. Petrol and diesel retail prices are for Delhi. Figures reflect average monthly price.
Sources: Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell, Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas; PRS.
Between June 2014 and October 2018, the retail selling prices did not adhere to change in global crude oil prices. The global prices fell sharply between June 2014 and January 2016, and then subsequently increased between February 2016 and October 2018. However, the retail selling prices remained stable during the entire period. This disparity in the change in global and Indian retail prices was because of the subsequent changes in taxes. For instance, central taxes were increased by Rs 11 and 13 between June 2014 and January 2016 on petrol and diesel respectively. Subsequently, taxes were decreased by four rupees between February 2016 and October 2018 for petrol and diesel. Similarly, during January-April 2020, following a sharp decline of 69% in the global crude oil prices, the central government increased the excise duty on petrol and diesel by Rs 10 per litre and Rs 13 per litre, respectively in May 2020.
Sharp increase in excise duty collections
As a result of the increase in excise duty in May 2020, the excise duty collection increased sharply from Rs 2.38 lakh crore in 2019-20 to Rs 3.84 lakh crore in 2020-21. The year-on-year growth rate of excise duty collection increased from 4% in 2019-20 to 67% in 2020-21. However, sales tax collections (from petroleum products) during that period remained more or less constant (Figure 3).
Figure 3: Excise duty and sales tax/ VAT collection from petroleum products (in Rs lakh crore)
Note: The excise duty component in the figure includes cess on crude oil.
Sources: Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell, Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas; PRS.
Share of states in excise duty has decreased over the years
Though central taxes (such as excise duty) are levied by the centre, it has only 59% of the revenue from these taxes. The remaining 41% of the revenue is required to be devolved to the state governments as per the recommendations of the 15th Finance Commission. These devolved taxes are un-tied in nature, states can spend them according to their own discretion. The excise duty levied on petrol and diesel consists of two broad components: (i) tax component (i.e., basic excise duty), and (ii) cess and surcharge component. Of this, only the revenue generated from the tax component is devolved to states. Revenue generated by the centre from any cess or surcharge is not devolved to states. Currently, the Agriculture Infrastructure and Development Cess, and the Road and Infrastructure Cess are levied on the sale of petrol and diesel in addition to the surcharge.
In the Union Budget 2021-22, the Agriculture Infrastructure and Development cess on petrol and diesel was announced at Rs 2.5 per litre and Rs 4 per litre, respectively. However, simultaneously, the basic excise duty and surcharge were reduced by equal amounts, so that the overall rate remains the same. Essentially, this provision shifted a revenue of Rs 1.5 per litre of petrol and Rs 3 per litre of diesel from the states’ divisible pool of taxes to the cess and surcharge revenue, which is entirely with the centre. Similarly, over the last four years, the share of tax component in the excise duty has decreased by 40% in petrol and 59% in diesel (table 2). At present, majority of the excise duty levied on petrol (96%) and diesel (94%) is in the form of cess and surcharge, due to which it is entirely under the centre’s share (Table 2).
Table 2: Break up of excise duty (Rs per litre)
Excise duty |
Petrol |
Diesel |
||||||
Apr-17 |
% share of total |
Feb-21 |
% share |
Apr-17 |
% share of total |
Feb-21 |
% share |
|
Tax (devolved to states) |
9.48 |
44% |
1.4 |
4% |
11.33 |
65% |
1.8 |
6% |
Cess and surcharge (centre) |
12 |
56% |
31.5 |
96% |
6 |
35% |
30 |
94% |
Total |
21.48 |
100% |
32.9 |
100% |
17.33 |
100% |
31.8 |
100% |
Sources: Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell, Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas; PRS
As a result, the devolution to states out of the excise duty has declined over the last four years. Even though the excise duty collections have increased sharply between 2019-20 and 2020-21, the devolved component has declined from Rs 26,464 to Rs 19,578 (revised estimate) in the same period.
Annexure
Table 3: Sales taxes/VAT rates levied on petrol and diesel across states (as on October 1, 2021)
State/UT |
Petrol |
Diesel |
Andaman & Nicobar Islands |
6% |
6% |
Andhra Pradesh |
31% VAT + Rs.4/litre VAT+Rs.1/litre Road Development Cess an d Vat thereon |
22.25% VAT + Rs.4/litre VAT+Rs.1/litre Road Development Cess and Vat thereon |
Arunachal Pradesh |
20% |
13% |
Assam |
32.66% or Rs.22.63 per litre whichever is higher as VAT minus Rebate of Rs.5 per Litre |
23.66% or Rs.17.45 per litre whichever is higher as VAT minus Rebate of Rs.5 per Litre |
Bihar |
26% or Rs 16.65/Litre whichever is higher (30% Surcharge on VAT as irrecoverable tax) |
19% or Rs 12.33/Litre whichever is higher (30% Surcharge on VAT as irrecoverable tax) |
Chandigarh |
Rs.10/KL cess +22.45% or Rs.12.58/Litre whichever is higher |
Rs.10/KL cess + 14.02% or Rs.7.63/Litre whichever is higher |
Chhattisgarh |
25% VAT + Rs.2/litre VAT |
25% VAT + Rs.1/litre VAT |
Dadra and Nagar Haveli and Daman and Diu |
20% VAT |
20% VAT |
Delhi |
30% VAT |
Rs.250/KL air ambience charges + 16.75% VAT |
Goa |
27% VAT + 0.5% Green cess |
23% VAT + 0.5% Green cess |
Gujarat |
20.1% VAT+ 4% Cess on Town Rate & VAT |
20.2% VAT + 4 % Cess on Town Rate & VAT |
Haryana |
25% or Rs.15.62/litre whichever is higher as VAT+5% additional tax on VAT |
16.40% VAT or Rs.10.08/litre whichever is higher as VAT+5% additional tax on VAT |
Himachal Pradesh |
25% or Rs 15.50/Litre- whichever is higher |
14% or Rs 9.00/Litre- whichever is higher |
Jammu & Kashmir |
24% MST+ Rs.5/Litre employment cess, Reduction of Rs.0.50/Litre |
16% MST+ Rs.1.50/Litre employment cess |
Jharkhand |
22% on the sale price or Rs. 17.00 per litre , which ever is higher + Cess of Rs 1.00 per Ltr |
22% on the sale price or Rs. 12.50 per litre , which ever is higher + Cess of Rs 1.00 per Ltr |
Karnataka |
35% sales tax |
24% sales tax |
Kerala |
30.08% sales tax+ Rs.1/litre additional sales tax + 1% cess |
22.76% sales tax+ Rs.1/litre additional sales tax + 1% cess |
Ladakh |
24% MST+ Rs.5/Litre employment cess, Reduction of Rs.2.5/Litre |
16% MST+ Rs.1/Litre employment cess , Reduction of Rs.0.50/Litre |
Lakshadweep |
Nil |
Nil |
Madhya Pradesh |
33 % VAT + Rs.4.5/litre VAT+1%Cess |
23% VAT+ Rs.3/litre VAT+1% Cess |
Maharashtra – Mumbai, Thane , Navi Mumbai, Amravati & Aurangabad |
26% VAT+ Rs.10.12/Litre additional tax |
24% VAT+ Rs.3.00/Litre additional tax |
Maharashtra (Rest of State) |
25% VAT+ Rs.10.12/Litre additional tax |
21% VAT+ Rs.3.00/Litre additional tax |
Manipur |
32% VAT |
18% VAT |
Meghalaya |
20% or Rs15.00/Litre- whichever is higher (Rs.0.10/Litre pollution surcharge) |
12% or Rs9.00/Litre- whichever is higher (Rs.0.10/Litre pollution surcharge) |
Mizoram |
25% VAT |
14.5% VAT |
Nagaland |
25% VAT or Rs. 16.04/litre whichever is higher +5% surcharge + Rs.2.00/Litre as road maintenance cess |
16.50% VAT or Rs. 10.51/litre whichever is higher +5% surcharge + Rs.2.00/Litre as road maintenance cess |
Odisha |
32% VAT |
28% VAT |
Puducherry |
23% VAT |
17.75% VAT |
Punjab |
Rs.2050/KL (cess)+ Rs.0.10 per Litre (Urban Transport Fund) + 0.25 per Litre (Special Infrastructure Development Fee)+24.79% VAT+10% additional tax on VAT |
Rs.1050/KL (cess) + Rs.0.10 per Litre (Urban Transport Fund) +0.25 per Litre (Special Infrastructure Development Fee) + 15.94% VAT+10% additional tax on VAT |
Rajasthan |
36% VAT+Rs 1500/KL road development cess |
26% VAT+ Rs.1750/KL road development cess |
Sikkim |
25.25% VAT+ Rs.3000/KL cess |
14.75% VAT + Rs.2500/KL cess |
Tamil Nadu |
13% + Rs.11.52 per litre |
11% + Rs.9.62 per litre |
Telangana |
35.20% VAT |
27% VAT |
Tripura |
25% VAT+ 3% Tripura Road Development Cess |
16.50% VAT+ 3% Tripura Road Development Cess |
Uttar Pradesh |
26.80% or Rs 18.74/Litre whichever is higher |
17.48% or Rs 10.41/Litre whichever is higher |
Uttarakhand |
25% or Rs 19 Per Ltr whichever is greater |
17.48% or Rs Rs 10.41 Per Ltr whichever is greater |
West Bengal |
25% or Rs.13.12/litre whichever is higher as sales tax+ Rs.1000/KL cess – Rs 1000/KL sales tax rebate (20% Additional tax on VAT as irrecoverable tax) |
17% or Rs.7.70/litre whichever is higher as sales tax + Rs 1000/KL cess – Rs 1000/KL sales tax rebate (20% Additional tax on VAT as irrecoverable tax) |
Sources: Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell, Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas; PRS.