In April 2020, the International Labour Organisation (ILO) estimated that nearly 2.5 crore jobs could be lost worldwide due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.  Further, it observed that more than 40 crore informal workers in India may get pushed into deeper poverty due to the pandemic.  In this blog post, we discuss the effect of COVID-19 on unemployment in urban areas as per the quarterly Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) report released last week, and highlight some of the measures taken by the central government with regard to unemployment.

Methodology for estimating unemployment in PLFS reports

The National Statistics Office (NSO) released its latest quarterly PLFS report for the October-December 2020 quarter.  The PLFS reports give estimates of labour force indicators including Labour Force Participation Rate (LFPR), Unemployment Rate, and distribution of workers across industries.  The reports are released on a quarterly as well as annual basis.  The quarterly reports cover only urban areas whereas the annual report covers both urban and rural areas.  The latest annual report is available for the July 2019-June 2020 period.

The quarterly PLFS reports provide estimates based on the Current Weekly Activity Status (CWS).  The CWS of a person is the activity status obtained during a reference period of seven days preceding the date of the survey.  As per CWS status, a person is considered as unemployed in a week if he did not work even for at least one hour on any day during the reference week but sought or was available for work.  In contrast, the headline numbers on employment-unemployment in the annual PLFS reports are reported based on the usual activity status.  Usual activity status relates to the activity status of a person during the reference period of the last 365 days preceding the date of the survey.

Unemployment rate remains notably higher than the pre-COVID period 

To contain the spread of COVID-19, a nationwide lockdown was imposed from late March till May 2020.   During the lockdown, severe restrictions were placed on the movement of individuals and economic activities were significantly halted barring the activities related to essential goods and services.  Unemployment rate in urban areas rose to 20.9% during the April-June quarter of 2020, more than double the unemployment rate in the same quarter the previous year (8.9%).  Unemployment rate refers to the percentage of unemployed persons in the labour force.  Labour force includes persons who are either employed or unemployed but seeking work.  The lockdown restrictions were gradually relaxed during the subsequent months.   Unemployment rate also saw a decrease as compared to the levels seen in the April-June quarter of 2020.  During the October-December quarter of 2020 (latest data available), unemployment rate had reduced to 10.3%.  However, it was notably higher than the unemployment rate in the same quarter last year (7.9%).

Figure 1: Unemployment rate in urban areas across all age groups as per current weekly activity status (Figures in %)

 image

Note: PLFS includes data for transgenders among males.
Sources: Quarterly Periodic Labour Force Survey Reports, Ministry of Statistics and Program Implementation; PRS.

Recovery post-national lockdown uneven in case of females

Pre-COVID-19 trends suggest that the female unemployment rate has generally been higher than the male unemployment rate in the country (7.3% vs 9.8% during the October-December quarter of 2019, respectively).  Since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, this gap seems to have widened.   During the October-December quarter of 2020, the unemployment rate for females was 13.1%, as compared to 9.5% for males.

The Standing Committee on Labour (April 2021) also noted that the pandemic led to large-scale unemployment for female workers, in both organised and unorganised sectors.  It recommended: (i) increasing government procurement from women-led enterprises, (ii) training women in new technologies, (iii) providing women with access to capital, and (iv) investing in childcare and linked infrastructure.

Labour force participation

Persons dropping in and out of the labour force may also influence the unemployment rate.  At a given point of time, there may be persons who are below the legal working age or may drop out of the labour force due to various socio-economic reasons, for instance, to pursue education.  At the same time, there may also be discouraged workers who, while willing and able to be employed, have ceased to seek work.  Labour Force Participation Rate (LFPR) is the indicator that denotes the percentage of the population which is part of the labour force.  The LFPR saw only marginal changes throughout 2019 and 2020.  During the April-June quarter (where COVID-19 restrictions were the most stringent), the LFPR was 35.9%, which was lower than same in the corresponding quarter in 2019 (36.2%).  Note that female LFPR in India is significantly lower than male LFPR (16.6% and 56.7%, respectively, in the October-December quarter of 2019).

Figure 2: LFPR in urban areas across all groups as per current weekly activity status (Figures in %)

image

Note: PLFS includes data for transgenders among males.
Sources: Quarterly Periodic Labour Force Survey Reports, Ministry of Statistics and Program Implementation; PRS.

Measures taken by the government for workers

The Standing Committee on Labour in its report released in August 2021 noted that 90% of workers in India are from the informal sector.  These workers include: (i) migrant workers, (ii) contract labourers, (iii) construction workers, and (iv) street vendors.  The Committee observed that these workers were worst impacted by the pandemic due to seasonality of employment and lack of employer-employee relationship in unorganised sectors.  The Committee recommended central and state governments to: (i) encourage entrepreneurial opportunities, (ii) attract investment in traditional manufacturing sectors and developing industrial clusters, (iii) strengthen social security measures, (iv) maintain a database of workers in the informal sector, and (v) promote vocational training.  It took note of the various steps taken by the central government to support workers and address the challenges and threats posed by the COVID-19 pandemic (applicable to urban areas): 

  • Under the Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Yojana (PMGKY), the central government contributed both 12% employer’s share and 12% employee’s share under Employees Provident Fund (EPF).  Between March and August 2020, a total of Rs 2,567 crore was credited in EPF accounts of 38.85 lakhs eligible employees through 2.63 lakh establishments.
     
  • The Aatmanirbhar Bharat Rozgar Yojna (ABRY) Scheme was launched with effect from October 2020 to incentivise employers for the creation of new employment along with social security benefits and restoration of loss of employment during the COVID-19 pandemic.  Further, statutory provident fund contribution of both employers and employees was reduced to 10% each from the existing 12% for all establishments covered by EPF Organisation for three months.  As of June 30, 2021, an amount of Rs 950 crore has been disbursed under ABRY to around 22 lakh beneficiaries.
     
  • The unemployment benefit under the Atal Beemit Vyakti Kalyan Yojana (launched in July 2018) was enhanced from 25% to 50% of the average earning for insured workers who have lost employment due to COVID-19.
     
  • Under the Prime Minister’s Street Vendor’s Aatma Nirbhar Nidhi (PM SVANidhi) scheme, the central government provided an initial working capital of up to Rs 10,000 to street vendors.  As of June 28, 2021, 25 lakh loan applications have been sanctioned and Rs 2,130 crore disbursed to 21.57 lakh beneficiaries.

The central and state governments have also taken various other measures, such as increasing spending on infrastructure creation and enabling access to cheaper lending for businesses, to sustain economic activity and boost employment generation.

Mr. Ramnath Kovind completes his tenure as President in July.  With the Election Commission of India expected to notify the election dates this week, we look at how India will elect its next President.  

As the Head of the State, the President is a key part of Parliament.  The President calls the two Houses of Parliament into session on the advice of the Council of Ministers.  A Bill passed by the Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha does not become a law unless assented to by the President.  Further, when Parliament is not in session, the President holds the power to sign a law with immediate effect through an Ordinance.

Who elects the President?

The manner of election of the President is provided in Article 55 of the Constitution.  Members of Parliament and Members of Legislative Assemblies (MPs and MLAs) including elected representatives from the Union Territories (UTs) of Delhi and Puducherry form the electoral college, which elects the President.  At least 50 elected representatives must propose a candidate, who must then be seconded by 50 other electors to run for the President's office.  Members of Legislative Councils and the 12 nominated members of Rajya Sabha do not participate in the voting process.

The history behind having proposers and seconders 
The requirement of having a certain number of electors propose a candidate was introduced after the experience of the first five Presidential elections.  It was common then for several candidates to put themselves up for election when they did not have a remote chance of getting elected.  In the 1967 Presidential elections, 17 candidates contested, but nine of them did not win a single vote.  This repeated again in the 1969 elections, when out of 15 candidates, five did not secure any votes.

To discourage the practice, candidates had to secure at least 10 proposers and seconders each to contest the elections from the 1974 election onwards.  A compulsory security deposit of Rs 2,500 was also introduced.  The changes were brought in through an amendment to the Presidential and Vice-Presidential Act, 1952

In 1997, the Act was further amended to increase the security deposit to Rs 15,000 and the minimum number of proposers and seconders to 50 each.


How are the votes calculated?

The Presidential election uses a special voting to tally the votes.  A different voting weightage is assigned to an MP and an MLA.  The value of each MLA's vote is determined based on the population of their state and the number of MLAs.  For instance, an MLA from UP has a value of 208 while an MLA from Sikkim has 7 (see Table 1).  Due to a Constitutional Amendment passed in 2002, the population of the state as per the 1971 census is taken for the calculation.

The value of an MP's vote is the sum of all votes of MLAs across the country divided by the number of elected MPs.  

How will the numbers look in 2022?

In the 2017 Presidential elections, electors from 31 states and the UTs of Delhi and Puducherry participated. However, in 2019, with the Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) Reorganization Act, the number of states were reduced to 30. The J&K Assembly was dissolved as per the Act and a new legislature for the UT of J&K is yet to be reconstituted. UTs with legislatures were not originally part of the electoral college for the election of the President. The Constitution was amended in 1992 to specifically include the UTs of Delhi and Puducherry. Note that for MLAs from J&K to participate in future Presidential elections, a similar Constitutional amendment would be required to be passed by Parliament.

Based on the assumption that J&K is not included in the 2022 Presidential election, the total number of votes of MLAs in 2022 elections will have to be adjusted.  The 87 Jammu and Kashmir MLAs must be removed from the total number of MLAs of 4,120.  Jammu and Kashmir’s contributing vote share of 6,264 must also be reduced from the total vote share of 549,495.  Adjusting for these changes, 4,033 MLAs will participate in the 2022 elections and the combined vote share of all MLAs will add up to 543,231.

Table 1: The value of votes of elected MLAs of different states at the 2017 Presidential Election

Name of State

Number of Assembly seats

Population (1971 Census)

Value of vote of each MLA

Total value of votes for the state (B x D)

A

B

C

D

E

Andhra Pradesh

175

2,78,00,586

159

27,825

Arunachal Pradesh

60

4,67,511

8

480

Assam

126

1,46,25,152

116

14,616

Bihar

243

4,21,26,236

173

42,039

Chhattisgarh

90

1,16,37,494

129

11,610

Goa

40

7,95,120

20

800

Gujarat

182

2,66,97,475

147

26,754

Haryana

90

1,00,36,808

112

10,080

Himachal Pradesh

68

34,60,434

51

3,468

Jammu and Kashmir

87

63,00,000

72

6,264

Jharkhand

81

1,42,27,133

176

14,256

Karnataka

224

2,92,99,014

131

29,344

Kerala

140

2,13,47,375

152

21,280

Madhya Pradesh

230

3,00,16,625

131

30,130

Maharashtra

288

5,04,12,235

175

50,400

Manipur

60

10,72,753

18

1,080

Meghalaya

60

10,11,699

17

1,020

Mizoram

40

3,32,390

8

320

Nagaland

60

5,16,449

9

540

Odisha

147

2,19,44,615

149

21,903

Punjab

117

1,35,51,060

116

13,572

Rajasthan

200

2,57,65,806

129

25,800

Sikkim

32

2,09,843

7

224

Tamil Nadu

234

4,11,99,168

176

41,184

Telangana

119

1,57,02,122

132

15,708

Tripura

60

15,56,342

26

1,560

Uttarakhand

70

44,91,239

64

4,480

Uttar Pradesh

403

8,38,49,905

208

83,824

West Bengal

294

4,43,12,011

151

44,394

NCT of Delhi

70

40,65,698

58

4,060

Puducherry

30

4,71,707

16

480

Total

4,120

54,93,02,005

 

5,49,495

Source: Election Commission of India (2017); PRS.

The value of an MP’s vote correspondingly will change from 708 in 2017 to 700 in 2022. 

Value of one MP's vote =   Total value of all votes of MLAs      =   543231     =    700 
                                              Total number of elected MPs                 776

Note that the value of an MP’s vote is rounded off to the closest whole number. This brings the combined value of the votes of all MPs to 543,200 (700 x 776). 

What is the number of votes required to win?

The voting for the Presidential elections is done through the system of single transferable vote. In this system, electors rank the candidates in the order of their preference. The winning candidate must secure more than half of the total value of valid votes to win the election. This is known as the quota. 

Assuming that each elector casts his vote and that each vote is valid:

Quota = Total value of MP’s votes + Total value of MLA’s votes + 1                                                        
                                                        2

= 543200 + 543231 +1     =   1086431 +1     =    543,216 
                2                                   2

The anti-defection law which disallows MPs from crossing the party line does not apply to the Presidential election. This means that the MPs and MLAs can keep their ballot secret.  

The counting of votes takes place in rounds. In Round 1, only the first preference marked on each ballot is counted. If any of the candidates secures the quota at this stage, he or she is declared the winner. If no candidate secures the quota in the first round, then another round of counting takes place. In this round, the votes cast to the candidate who secures the least number of votes in Round 1 are transferred. This means that these votes are now added to the second preference candidate marked on each ballot. This process is repeated till only one candidate remains. Note that it is not compulsory for an elector to mark his preference for all candidates. If no second preference is marked, then the ballots are treated as exhausted ballots in Round 2 and are not counted further.  

The fifth Presidential election which elected Mr. VV Giri is the only instance when a candidate did not secure the quota in the first round.  The second preference votes were then evaluated and Mr. Giri secured 4,20,077 of the 8,36,337 votes and was declared the President.

The only President of India to win unopposed 
India’s sixth President, Mr. Neelam Sanjiva Reddy who served from 1977 to 1982 was the only President to be elected unopposed.  37 candidates had filed their nominations for the 1977 elections, however on scrutiny, the nomination papers of 36 candidates were rejected by the Returning Officer and Mr. Reddy was the only candidate standing.