The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has decided to conduct an off-cycle meeting today to discuss the failure to meet the inflation target under Section 45ZN of the Reserve Bank of India Act, 1934. As per the Reserve Bank of India Act (RBI), 1934, MPC is required to meet at least four times each year, to discuss the macroeconomic issues in the country, and take policy decisions to address those. This is the second time MPC has conducted an off-cycle meeting in 2022-23. The meeting is scheduled in light of inflation being consistently high for nine consecutive months.

In this blog, we discuss what the inflation targeting framework is, examine retail and wholesale prices, and the divergence between them.   

What is the inflation targeting framework, and what happens if inflation is persistently high?

In 2016, Parliament amended the RBI Act, 1934 to change the monetary policy, and introduce an inflation targeting framework. This framework prioritises price stability to achieve sustainable GDP growth. Price stability allows investors to confidently invest their money for productive activities, without worrying about it losing value. Price stability also maintains the purchasing power of consumers, i.e., the ability to purchase a good (or service) with a given amount of money.

As per the new framework, the central government, in consultation with RBI sets: (i) an inflation target, and (ii) an upper and lower tolerance level for retail inflation. The target has been set at 4%, with an upper tolerance limit of 6% and a lower tolerance limit of 2%. The upper and lower limits indicate that although it is desirable for inflation to be close to 4%, deviation between these limits is acceptable. The target and bands are revised every five years. In March 2021, the existing targets were carried forward.  

Retail inflation has been above 6% for the past nine months, and it has been above 4% from October 2019 onwards (See Figure 1).

Figure 1: Consumer price index (year-on-year; in percentage)

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Sources: Database on Indian Economy, Reserve Bank of India; PRS.

If inflation is above or below the prescribed limits for three quarters, RBI must submit a report to the central government explaining why prices have been rising (or falling) persistently, what will be done to correct that, and an estimate as to when the target will be achieved.   

The MPC uses tools such as interest rates to control the level of inflation in the economy. One such rate is the policy repo rate, which is the rate at which RBI lends money to banks. An increase in the policy repo rate makes borrowing money more costly, and hence is expected to control inflation by reducing the money supply. MPC increased this rate from 4% in April 2022 to 4.4% in May 2022, to 4.9% in June 2022, to 5.4% in August 2022, and to 5.9% in September 2022.

Breaking down the Consumer Price Index and the Wholesale Price Index

Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the general prices of goods and services such as food, clothing, and fuel over time. Retail inflation is calculated as the change in the CPI over a period of time. Goods and services such as petrol, food products, health, and education are considered for its calculation, which are assigned different weights (See Table 1). Between February 2022 and August 2022, the average annual inflation was 6.9%. The rise in prices of subcomponents of the CPI during this period is indicated in Table 2.

Table 1: Assigned weights for the calculation of CPI

Category

Weight

Food and beverages

46%

Miscellaneous (including petrol and diesel, health, and education)

28%

Housing

10%

Clothing and footwear

7%

Fuel and light

7%

Pan, tobacco, and intoxications

2%

Total

100%

Sources: MOSPI; PRS.

Table 2: Average inflation of some CPI components
between February 2022 to August 2022 (in percentage)

Subcategory of CPI

Average inflation

Vegetables 

13.26%

Oils and fats

12.46%

Footwear

11.41%

Fuel and Light

9.88%

Transport and communication

7.74%

Cereals and products

6.05%

Sources: Database on Indian Economy, RBI; PRS.

CPI is not the only index that measures inflation in an economy. The Wholesale Price Index (WPI) measures the wholesale prices of goods. A change in wholesale prices reflects wholesale inflation. Table 3 indicates the weights assigned to goods for calculating the WPI. Manufactured goods include metals, chemicals, food products, and textiles.   

Primary articles (23%) include food articles, and crude petroleum and natural gas. Fuel and power (12%) include mineral oils, electricity, and coal.  WPI has remained above 10% from April 2021 onwards. It reached an all-time high of 17% in May 2022. This was driven by the inflation in metals, kerosene and petroleum coke, fruits and vegetables, and palm oil.

Table 3:Assigned weights for the
calculation of WPI (in percentage)

Category

Weight

Manufactured products

64%

Primary articles

23%

Fuel and power

12%

All commodities

100%

Sources: Ministry of Commerce and Industry; PRS.

Why has WPI inflation been consistently above CPI inflation?

Movements in the WPI have an impact on the CPI.  For almost a year and half, CPI inflation has remained below WPI inflation.  However, as per the design of the indices, it is expected that CPI would remain above WPI, and that any increase in WPI would reflect in the CPI after a time lag.  This is because retail prices include taxes (as a percentage of price), while wholesale prices do not.  Additionally, some of the goods in WPI act as inputs in the goods considered in CPI.  An increase in input prices would lead to higher retail prices after a time lag.

We discuss possible reasons for why CPI has remained below WPI for a year and a half.

Figure 2: Consumer Price Index and Wholesale Price Index

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Sources: Database on Indian Economy, Reserve Bank of India; PRS.

Composition of indices

As indicated in Table 2 and 3, the composition of the two indices varies. For instance, prices of manufacture of basic metals, chemicals, and machinery grew at an average rate of 13% between February 2021 and September 2022.  They contribute 7% to the WPI. These are input goods for producing final goods and services such as automobiles, which are included in the CPI. The rise in prices of transport vehicles, communication devices, fuel for transport, and housing (CPI components) rose by 6% during this period.

The Ministry of Finance has observed that wholesale prices did not feed into retail prices (from March 2021 onwards) as wholesalers absorbed the rising input costs and did not pass them on to retailers. In August 2022, it noted that as retail prices are rising now, the pass-through may occur.

In the past few months, retail prices of petrol and diesel have consistently increased to all-time high levels.  On October 16, 2021, the retail price of petrol in Delhi was Rs 105.5 per litre, and that of diesel was Rs 94.2 per litre.  In Mumbai, these prices were even higher at Rs 111.7 per litre and Rs 102.5 per litre, respectively.

The difference in fuel retail prices in the two cities is due to the different tax rates levied by the respective state governments on the same products.  In this blog post, we look at the tax components in the price structure of petrol and diesel, the variation in these across states, and the major changes in taxation of these products in the recent years.  We also discuss changes in the retail prices over the past few years and how it compares vis-à-vis the global crude oil prices.

Taxes make up around 50% of the retail price

Public sector Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) revise the retail prices of petrol and diesel in India on a daily basis, according to changes in the price of global crude oil.  The price charged to dealers includes the base price set by OMCs and the freight price.   As on October 16, 2021, the price charged to dealers makes up 42% of the retail price in the case of petrol, and 49% of the retail price in the case of diesel (Table 1).

The break-up of retail prices of petrol and diesel in Delhi (as on October 16, 2021), shows that around 54% of the retail price of petrol comprises central and states taxes.  In the case of diesel, this is close to 49%.  The central government taxes the production of petroleum products, while states tax their sale.  The central government levies an excise duty of Rs 32.9 per litre on petrol and Rs 31.8 per litre on diesel.  These make up 31% and 34% of the current retail prices of petrol and diesel, respectively.

Table 1: Break-up of petrol and diesel retail prices in Delhi (as on October 16, 2021)

Component

Petrol

Diesel

Rs/litre

% of retail price

Rs/litre

% of retail price

Price Charged to Dealers

44.4

42%

46.0

49%

Excise Duty (levied by centre)

32.9

31%

31.8

34%

Dealer Commission (average)

3.9

4%

2.6

3%

Sales Tax/ VAT (levied by state)

24.3

23%

13.8

15%

Retail Price

105.5

100%

94.2

100%

Note: Delhi levies 30% VAT on petrol and 16.75% VAT on diesel. 
Sources: Indian Oil Corporation Limited; PRS.

While excise duty rates are uniform across the country, states levy sales tax/ Value Added Tax (VAT) which varies across states.  For instance, Odisha levies 32% VAT on petrol, while Uttar Pradesh levies 26.8% VAT or Rs 18.74 per litre, whichever is higher.   Refer to the table 3 in annexure for sales taxes/VAT levied across the country.  The figure below shows the different tax rates levied by states on petrol and diesel.  In addition to the tax rates shown in the graph, many state governments, such as Tamil Nadu, also levy certain additional levies such as cess (Rs 11.5 per litre).

Figure 1: Sales tax/VAT rates levied by states on petrol and diesel (as on October 1, 2021)

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Note: The rates shown for Maharashtra are averages of the rates levied in the Mumbai-Thane region and in the rest of the state. Only percentages are being shown in this graph. 
Sources: Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell, Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas; PRS.

Note that unlike excise duty, sales tax is an ad valorem tax, i.e., it does not have a fixed value, and is charged as a percentage of the price of the product.  This implies that while the value of excise duty component of the price structure is fixed, the value of the sales tax component is dependent on the other three components, i.e., price charged to dealers, dealer commission, and excise duty.

Retail prices in India compared to global crude oil price

India’s dependence on imports for consumption of petroleum products has increased over the years.  For instance, in 1998-99, net imports of petroleum products were 69% of the total consumption, which increased to around 95% in 2020-21.  Because of a large share of imports in the domestic consumption, any change in the global price of crude oil has a significant impact on the domestic prices of petroleum products.  The two figures below show the trend in the price of global crude oil and retail prices of petrol and diesel in India, over the last nine years.

Figure 2: Trend of the global crude oil price vis-à-vis retail prices of petrol and diesel (in Delhi)

image

image

Note: Global Crude Oil Price is for the Indian basket.   Petrol and diesel retail prices are for Delhi.  Figures reflect average monthly price.
Sources: Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell, Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas; PRS.

Between June 2014 and October 2018, the retail selling prices did not adhere to change in global crude oil prices.  The global prices fell sharply between June 2014 and January 2016, and then subsequently increased between February 2016 and October 2018.  However, the retail selling prices remained stable during the entire period.  This disparity in the change in global and Indian retail prices was because of the subsequent changes in taxes.  For instance, central taxes were increased by Rs 11 and 13 between June 2014 and January 2016 on petrol and diesel respectively.  Subsequently, taxes were decreased by four rupees between February 2016 and October 2018 for petrol and diesel.  Similarly, during January-April 2020, following a sharp decline of 69% in the global crude oil prices, the central government increased the excise duty on petrol and diesel by Rs 10 per litre and Rs 13 per litre, respectively in May 2020. 

Sharp increase in excise duty collections

As a result of the increase in excise duty in May 2020, the excise duty collection increased sharply from Rs 2.38 lakh crore in 2019-20 to Rs 3.84 lakh crore in 2020-21.  The year-on-year growth rate of excise duty collection increased from 4% in 2019-20 to 67% in 2020-21.  However, sales tax collections (from petroleum products) during that period remained more or less constant (Figure 3).  

Figure 3: Excise duty and sales tax/ VAT collection from petroleum products (in Rs lakh crore) 

image

Note: The excise duty component in the figure includes cess on crude oil.
Sources: Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell, Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas; PRS.

Share of states in excise duty has decreased over the years

Though central taxes (such as excise duty) are levied by the centre, it has only 59% of the revenue from these taxes.  The remaining 41% of the revenue is required to be devolved to the state governments as per the recommendations of the 15th Finance Commission.  These devolved taxes are un-tied in nature, states can spend them according to their own discretion.  The excise duty levied on petrol and diesel consists of two broad components: (i) tax component (i.e., basic excise duty), and (ii) cess and surcharge component.  Of this, only the revenue generated from the tax component is devolved to states.  Revenue generated by the centre from any cess or surcharge is not devolved to states.  Currently, the Agriculture Infrastructure and Development Cess, and the Road and Infrastructure Cess are levied on the sale of petrol and diesel in addition to the surcharge.  

In the Union Budget 2021-22, the Agriculture Infrastructure and Development cess on petrol and diesel was announced at Rs 2.5 per litre and Rs 4 per litre, respectively.  However, simultaneously, the basic excise duty and surcharge were reduced by equal amounts, so that the overall rate remains the same.  Essentially, this provision shifted a revenue of Rs 1.5 per litre of petrol and Rs 3 per litre of diesel from the states’ divisible pool of taxes to the cess and surcharge revenue, which is entirely with the centre.  Similarly, over the last four years, the share of tax component in the excise duty has decreased by 40% in petrol and 59% in diesel (table 2).  At present, majority of the excise duty levied on petrol (96%) and diesel (94%) is in the form of cess and surcharge, due to which it is entirely under the centre’s share (Table 2).  

Table 2: Break up of excise duty (Rs per litre)

Excise duty

Petrol

Diesel

Apr-17

% share of total

Feb-21

% share

Apr-17

% share of total

Feb-21

% share

Tax (devolved to states)

9.48

44%

1.4

4%

11.33

65%

1.8

6%

Cess and surcharge (centre)

12

56%

31.5

96%

6

35%

30

94%

Total

21.48

100%

32.9

100%

17.33

100%

31.8

100%

Sources: Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell, Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas; PRS

As a result, the devolution to states out of the excise duty has declined over the last four years.   Even though the excise duty collections have increased sharply between 2019-20 and 2020-21, the devolved component has declined from Rs 26,464 to Rs 19,578 (revised estimate) in the same period.    

Annexure

Table 3: Sales taxes/VAT rates levied on petrol and diesel across states (as on October 1, 2021)

State/UT

Petrol

Diesel

Andaman & Nicobar Islands

6%

6%

Andhra Pradesh

31% VAT + Rs.4/litre VAT+Rs.1/litre Road Development Cess an

d Vat thereon

22.25% VAT + Rs.4/litre VAT+Rs.1/litre Road Development Cess and Vat thereon

Arunachal Pradesh

20%

13%

Assam

32.66% or Rs.22.63 per litre whichever is higher as VAT minus Rebate of Rs.5 per Litre

23.66% or Rs.17.45 per litre whichever is higher as VAT minus Rebate of Rs.5 per Litre

Bihar

26% or Rs 16.65/Litre whichever is higher (30% Surcharge on VAT as irrecoverable tax)

19% or Rs 12.33/Litre whichever is higher (30% Surcharge on VAT as irrecoverable tax)

Chandigarh

Rs.10/KL cess +22.45% or Rs.12.58/Litre whichever is higher

Rs.10/KL cess + 14.02% or Rs.7.63/Litre whichever is higher

Chhattisgarh

25% VAT + Rs.2/litre VAT

25% VAT + Rs.1/litre VAT

Dadra and Nagar Haveli and Daman and Diu

20% VAT

20% VAT

Delhi

30% VAT

Rs.250/KL air ambience charges + 16.75% VAT

Goa

27% VAT + 0.5% Green cess

23% VAT + 0.5% Green cess

Gujarat

20.1% VAT+ 4% Cess on Town Rate & VAT

20.2% VAT + 4 % Cess on Town Rate & VAT

Haryana

25% or Rs.15.62/litre whichever is higher as VAT+5% additional tax on VAT

16.40% VAT or Rs.10.08/litre whichever is higher as VAT+5% additional tax on VAT

Himachal Pradesh

25% or Rs 15.50/Litre- whichever is higher

14% or Rs 9.00/Litre- whichever is higher

Jammu & Kashmir

24% MST+ Rs.5/Litre employment cess, Reduction of Rs.0.50/Litre

16% MST+ Rs.1.50/Litre employment cess 

Jharkhand

22% on the sale price or Rs. 17.00 per litre , which ever is higher + Cess of Rs 1.00 per Ltr

22% on the sale price or Rs. 12.50 per litre , which ever is higher + Cess of Rs 1.00 per Ltr

Karnataka

35% sales tax

24% sales tax

Kerala

30.08% sales tax+ Rs.1/litre additional sales tax + 1% cess 

22.76% sales tax+ Rs.1/litre additional sales tax + 1% cess 

Ladakh

24% MST+ Rs.5/Litre employment cess, Reduction of Rs.2.5/Litre

16% MST+ Rs.1/Litre employment cess , Reduction of Rs.0.50/Litre

Lakshadweep

Nil

Nil

Madhya Pradesh

33 % VAT + Rs.4.5/litre VAT+1%Cess

23% VAT+ Rs.3/litre VAT+1% Cess

Maharashtra – Mumbai, Thane , Navi Mumbai,  Amravati & Aurangabad

26% VAT+ Rs.10.12/Litre additional tax 

24% VAT+ Rs.3.00/Litre additional tax 

Maharashtra (Rest of State)

25% VAT+ Rs.10.12/Litre additional tax 

21% VAT+ Rs.3.00/Litre additional tax 

Manipur

32% VAT

18% VAT

Meghalaya

20% or Rs15.00/Litre- whichever is higher (Rs.0.10/Litre pollution surcharge) 

12% or Rs9.00/Litre- whichever is higher (Rs.0.10/Litre pollution surcharge) 

Mizoram

25% VAT

14.5% VAT

Nagaland

25% VAT or Rs. 16.04/litre whichever is higher +5% surcharge + Rs.2.00/Litre as road maintenance cess 

16.50% VAT or Rs. 10.51/litre whichever is higher +5% surcharge + Rs.2.00/Litre as road maintenance cess 

Odisha

32% VAT

28% VAT

Puducherry

23% VAT

17.75% VAT

Punjab

Rs.2050/KL (cess)+ Rs.0.10 per Litre (Urban Transport Fund) + 0.25 per Litre (Special Infrastructure Development Fee)+24.79% VAT+10% additional tax on VAT

Rs.1050/KL (cess) + Rs.0.10 per Litre (Urban Transport Fund) +0.25 per Litre (Special Infrastructure Development Fee) + 15.94% VAT+10% additional tax on VAT

Rajasthan

36% VAT+Rs 1500/KL road development cess

26% VAT+ Rs.1750/KL road development cess

Sikkim

25.25% VAT+ Rs.3000/KL cess 

14.75% VAT + Rs.2500/KL cess 

Tamil Nadu

13% + Rs.11.52 per litre

11%  + Rs.9.62 per litre

Telangana

35.20% VAT

27% VAT

Tripura

25% VAT+ 3% Tripura Road Development Cess

16.50% VAT+ 3% Tripura Road Development Cess

Uttar Pradesh

26.80% or Rs 18.74/Litre whichever is higher

17.48% or Rs 10.41/Litre whichever is higher

Uttarakhand

25% or Rs 19 Per Ltr whichever is greater

17.48% or Rs Rs 10.41 Per Ltr whichever is greater

West Bengal

25% or Rs.13.12/litre whichever is higher as sales tax+ Rs.1000/KL cess – Rs 1000/KL sales tax rebate (20% Additional tax on VAT as irrecoverable tax)

17% or Rs.7.70/litre whichever is higher as sales tax + Rs 1000/KL cess – Rs 1000/KL sales tax rebate (20% Additional tax on VAT as irrecoverable tax)

Sources: Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell, Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas; PRS.