There has been much discussion about bringing the GDP growth on track and the need for expediting infrastructure projects in this regard. At the Planning Commission Meeting to approve the Twelfth Five Year Plan, last month, there were concerns about the implementation of such projects because of the delay in the grant of environment and forest clearances. In this context, there has been talk of setting up a singular body that will grant approvals for large infrastructure projects. News reports suggest that the government is considering forming a National Investment Approval Board (NIAB). The NIAB will be responsible for expediting the clearances for mega project proposals above a certain financial threshold. The Board would be headed by the Prime Minister and will have the authority to provide the ‘final decision’ on investment projects. According to news reports, the NIAB will be the final decision making body. The Ministry of Environment & Forests (MoEF) has raised concerns that this would create ambiguity in the current process of granting clearance for projects. While the formation of the NIAB is still being deliberated and discussed, it would be relevant to understand the process that the MoEF follows before granting clearance to a project and look at data on number of clearances granted and pending. The MoEF has developed certain processes to examine the potential environmental impact of new projects or expansion of existing projects. These are contained in the Environment Impact Assessment Notification, 2006. This notification empowers the Expert Appraisal Committees (EAC) to review the environmental impact of projects. The EAC carries out a combination of these steps depending on the classification of the project:
The MoEF considers the grant of environmental clearance to development projects in terms of the provisions of EIA Notification, 2006. From July 13, 2011 to July 12, 2012 the MoEF has given environmental clearances to 209 development projects. For a sector wise break up see Table 1. Table 1: Number of Environment Clearances Accorded
| Sector | No. of projects accorded EC |
| Industry (Steel & Cement) |
88 |
| Thermal Power |
29 |
| River Valley and Hydro-electric |
6 |
| Coal Mining |
29 |
| Non-Coal Mining |
25 |
| National Highways |
32 |
| Total |
209 |
Source: “Environmental Clearance accorded from 13.07.2011 to 12.07.2012”, MoEF A total of 593 proposals are pending for environmental clearance as on August 13, 2012.[i] It remains to be seen how the process of granting clearances as established by the MoEF will be reconciled with the expedited process of the NIAB.
[i] MoEF, Lok Sabha, Unstarred Question no. 637, August 13, 2012,
By Rohit and Jhalak Some Rajya Sabha seats will be contested over the next year. The Presidential elections are also scheduled to be held in 2012. The recent assembly elections has implications for both these elections. The Presidential elections will depend on the strenght in the assemblies, in Lok Sabha and in Rajya Sabha (which could change over the next year). Implications for Rajya Sabha Elections The composition of Rajya Sabha may undergo some changes. A total of 12 Rajya Sabha seats are up for election in 2011. This includes 6 seats from West Bengal, 3 from Gujarat and 1 each from Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu and Goa. Another 65 seats, across 18 states, go for elections in early 2012. The largest chunk of these seats comes from UP(10), followed by Andhra Pradesh(6), Bihar(6) and Maharashtra(6). Since Rajya Sabha members are elected by the elected members of the Legislative Assembly of the State, a change in the composition of the assembly can affect the election outcome. We used the current assembly compositions to work out scenarios for Rajya Sabha in 2011 and 2012. There could be alliances between parties for the Rajya Sabha elections, so we have estimated a range for each grouping (Scenario I and II) for 2012. See Notes [1] and [2].
| Parties/ Coalitions | 2010 | Scenario 2011 | Scenario 2012 | |
| I | II | |||
| UPA | 89 | 94 | 95 | 97 |
| NDA | 65 | 65 | 67 | 66 |
| Left | 22 | 19 | 14 | 14 |
| BSP | 18 | 18 | 19 | 19 |
| SP | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 |
| AIADMK | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| BJD | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 |
| Other parties | 18 | 18 | 20 | 19 |
| Independent | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 |
| Nominated | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| Total | 241 | 245 | 245 | 245 |
Implications for the election of the President The President is elected in accordance with the provisions of Article 54 and 55 of the Constitution. The electorate consists of the elected members of Lok Sabha, Rajya Sabha and all Legislative Assemblies. Each MP/ MLA's vote has a pre-determined value based on the population they represent. The election is held in accordance with the system of proportional representation by means of a single transferable vote. The winning candidate must secure at least 50% of the total value of votes polled. (For details, refer to this Election Commission document). There is no change in the Lok Sabha composition (unless there are bye-elections). Position in Legislative Assemblies After the recent round of assembly elections, the all-India MLA count adds up to:
| UPA | 1613 |
| NDA | 1106 |
| Left | 205 |
| BSP | 246 |
| AIADMK | 155 |
| BJD | 103 |
| SP | 95 |
| Others | 597 |
The above numbers can now be used to estimate the value of votes polled by each coalition. See Note [3]:
| Value of votes cast | Scenario - 1 | Scenario - 2 |
| UPA | 439,437 | 440,853 |
| NDA | 307,737 | 307,029 |
| Left | 51,646 | 51,646 |
| BSP | 77,243 | 77,243 |
| SP | 38,531 | 38,531 |
| AIADMK | 36,392 | 36,392 |
| BJD | 28,799 | 28,799 |
| Others | 119,097 | 118,389 |
| Total | 1,098,882 | 1,098,882 |
| Min. to be elected | 549,442 | 549,442 |
The UPA has the highest value of votes polled but the figure is not sufficient to get its candidate elected. Assuming that there are at most three candidates with significant support (UPA, NDA, and Left/Third Front), the winner will be the one who manages to bridge the gap with second preference votes. On this factor, the UPA backed candidate is likely to hold the edge over others. Notes: [1] At present, there are four vacant seats in Rajya Sabha (1 Maharashtra, 1 TN, 1 WB and 1 Nominated). It is assumed that all these seats are filled up in 2011. [2] Three of the 11 nominated members in the current Rajya Sabha have declared their party affiliation as INC. These have been included in the UPA count in the above analysis. For the sake of simplicity, it is assumed that members who get nominated in 2011/ 12 are not aligned to any party/ coalition. [3] The above analysis is based on the assumption that the next set of assembly elections happen after the Presidential election.
