This post is pursuant to the discussion on population stabilization being held in Parliament currently. India is the second most populous country in the world, sustaining 16.7% of the world's population on 2.4% of the world's surface area. The population of the country has increased from 238 million in 1901 to 1,029 million in 2001. Even now, India continues to add about 26 million people per year. This is because more than 50% of the population is in the reproductive age group. India launched a family planning programme in 1952. Though the birth rate started decreasing, it was accompanied by a sharp decrease in death rate, leading to an overall increase in population. In 1976, the first National Population Policy was formulated and tabled in Parliament. However, the statement was neither discussed nor adopted. The National Health Policy was then designed in 1983. It stressed the need for ‘securing the small family norm, through voluntary efforts and moving towards the goal of population stabilization’. While adopting the Health Policy, Parliament emphasized the need for a separate National Population Policy. This was followed by the National Population Policy in 2000. The immediate objective of the policy was to address the unmet needs for contraception, health care infrastructure and personnel, and to provide integrated service delivery for basic reproductive and child health care. The medium-term objective was to bring TFR (Total Fertility Rate - the average number of children a woman bears over her lifetime) to replacement levels by 2010. In the long term, it targeted a stable population by 2045, ‘at a level consistent with the requirements of sustainable economic growth, social development, and environmental protection.’ (See http://populationcommission.nic.in/npp.htm) Total Fertility Rate India’s TFR was around 6.1 in 1961. This meant that an average woman bore over 6 children during her lifetime. Over the years, there has been a noticeable decrease in this figure. The latest National Family Health Survey (NFHS III, 2005-06) puts it at 2.7. TFR is almost one child higher in rural areas (3.0) than in urban areas (2.1). TFR also varies widely across states. The states of Andhra Pradesh, Goa, Himachal Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala, Maharashtra, Punjab, Sikkim and Tamil Nadu have reached a TFR of 2.1 or less. However, several other states like UP, Bihar, MP, Rajasthan, Orissa, Uttaranchal, Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh, where over 40% of the population lives, TFR is still high. (See http://www.jsk.gov.in/total_fertility_rate.asp) Factors that affect population growth The overarching factor that affects population growth is low socio-economic development. For example, Uttar Pradesh has a literacy rate of 56%; only 14% of the women receive complete antenatal care. Uttar Pradesh records an average of four children per couple. In contrast, in Kerala almost every person is literate and almost every woman receives antenatal care. Kerala records an average of two children per couple. Infant mortality In 1961, the Infant Mortality Rate (IMR), deaths of infants per 1000 live births, was 115. The current all India average is much lower at 57. However, in most developed countries this figure is less than 5. IMR is the lowest at 15 in Kerala and the highest at 73 in Uttar Pradesh. Empirical correlations suggest that high IMR leads to greater desire for children. Early marriage Nationwide almost 43% of married women aged 20-24 were married before the age of 18. This figure is as high as 68% in Bihar. Not only does early marriage increase the likelihood of more children, it also puts the woman's health at risk. Level of education Fertility usually declines with increase in education levels of women. Use of contraceptives According to NFHS III (2005-06), only 56% of currently married women use some method of family planning in India. A majority of them (37%) have adopted permanent methods like sterilization. Other socio-economic factors The desire for larger families particularly preference for a male child also leads to higher birth rates. It is estimated that preference for a male child and high infant mortality together account for 20% of the total births in the country. Government initiatives The National Population Policy 2000 gave a focused approach to the problem of population stabilization. Following the policy, the government also enacted the Constitution (84th Amendment) Act, 2002. This Amendment extended the freeze on the state-wise allocation of seats in the Lok Sabha and the Rajya Sabha to 2026. It was expected that this would serve ‘as a motivational measure, in order to enable state governments to fearlessly and effectively pursue the agenda for population stabilization contained in the National Population Policy, 2000’. The National Commission on Population was formed in the year 2000. The Commission, chaired by the Prime Minister, has the mandate to review, monitor and give directions for implementation of the National Population Policy. The Jansankhya Sthirata Kosh (National Population Stabilization Fund) was setup as an autonomous society of the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare in 2005. Its broad mandate is to undertake activities aimed at achieving population stabilization. Programmes like the National Rural Health Mission, Janani Suraksha Yojana, ICDS (Integrated Child Development Services) etc. have also been launched by the government to tackle the healthcare needs of people. This is also expected to contribute to population stabilization. Free contraceptives are also being provided. In addition, monetary incentives are given to couples undertaking permanent family planning methods like vasectomy and tubectomy. Nutritional and educational problems are being targeted through programs like the mid-day meal scheme and the recently enacted Right to Education. ---------------- For more details on the issue, see the website of the National Population Stabilization Fund (http://www.jsk.gov.in/) Sources: Registrar General, India National Population Stabilization Fund National Commission on Population National Family Health Survey III (2005-06)
In the past few months, retail prices of petrol and diesel have consistently increased to all-time high levels. On October 16, 2021, the retail price of petrol in Delhi was Rs 105.5 per litre, and that of diesel was Rs 94.2 per litre. In Mumbai, these prices were even higher at Rs 111.7 per litre and Rs 102.5 per litre, respectively.
The difference in fuel retail prices in the two cities is due to the different tax rates levied by the respective state governments on the same products. In this blog post, we look at the tax components in the price structure of petrol and diesel, the variation in these across states, and the major changes in taxation of these products in the recent years. We also discuss changes in the retail prices over the past few years and how it compares vis-à-vis the global crude oil prices.
Taxes make up around 50% of the retail price
Public sector Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) revise the retail prices of petrol and diesel in India on a daily basis, according to changes in the price of global crude oil. The price charged to dealers includes the base price set by OMCs and the freight price. As on October 16, 2021, the price charged to dealers makes up 42% of the retail price in the case of petrol, and 49% of the retail price in the case of diesel (Table 1).
The break-up of retail prices of petrol and diesel in Delhi (as on October 16, 2021), shows that around 54% of the retail price of petrol comprises central and states taxes. In the case of diesel, this is close to 49%. The central government taxes the production of petroleum products, while states tax their sale. The central government levies an excise duty of Rs 32.9 per litre on petrol and Rs 31.8 per litre on diesel. These make up 31% and 34% of the current retail prices of petrol and diesel, respectively.
Table 1: Break-up of petrol and diesel retail prices in Delhi (as on October 16, 2021)
|
Component |
Petrol |
Diesel |
||
|
Rs/litre |
% of retail price |
Rs/litre |
% of retail price |
|
|
Price Charged to Dealers |
44.4 |
42% |
46.0 |
49% |
|
Excise Duty (levied by centre) |
32.9 |
31% |
31.8 |
34% |
|
Dealer Commission (average) |
3.9 |
4% |
2.6 |
3% |
|
Sales Tax/ VAT (levied by state) |
24.3 |
23% |
13.8 |
15% |
|
Retail Price |
105.5 |
100% |
94.2 |
100% |
Note: Delhi levies 30% VAT on petrol and 16.75% VAT on diesel.
Sources: Indian Oil Corporation Limited; PRS.
While excise duty rates are uniform across the country, states levy sales tax/ Value Added Tax (VAT) which varies across states. For instance, Odisha levies 32% VAT on petrol, while Uttar Pradesh levies 26.8% VAT or Rs 18.74 per litre, whichever is higher. Refer to the table 3 in annexure for sales taxes/VAT levied across the country. The figure below shows the different tax rates levied by states on petrol and diesel. In addition to the tax rates shown in the graph, many state governments, such as Tamil Nadu, also levy certain additional levies such as cess (Rs 11.5 per litre).
Figure 1: Sales tax/VAT rates levied by states on petrol and diesel (as on October 1, 2021)
Note: The rates shown for Maharashtra are averages of the rates levied in the Mumbai-Thane region and in the rest of the state. Only percentages are being shown in this graph.
Sources: Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell, Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas; PRS.
Note that unlike excise duty, sales tax is an ad valorem tax, i.e., it does not have a fixed value, and is charged as a percentage of the price of the product. This implies that while the value of excise duty component of the price structure is fixed, the value of the sales tax component is dependent on the other three components, i.e., price charged to dealers, dealer commission, and excise duty.
Retail prices in India compared to global crude oil price
India’s dependence on imports for consumption of petroleum products has increased over the years. For instance, in 1998-99, net imports of petroleum products were 69% of the total consumption, which increased to around 95% in 2020-21. Because of a large share of imports in the domestic consumption, any change in the global price of crude oil has a significant impact on the domestic prices of petroleum products. The two figures below show the trend in the price of global crude oil and retail prices of petrol and diesel in India, over the last nine years.
Figure 2: Trend of the global crude oil price vis-à-vis retail prices of petrol and diesel (in Delhi)
Note: Global Crude Oil Price is for the Indian basket. Petrol and diesel retail prices are for Delhi. Figures reflect average monthly price.
Sources: Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell, Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas; PRS.
Between June 2014 and October 2018, the retail selling prices did not adhere to change in global crude oil prices. The global prices fell sharply between June 2014 and January 2016, and then subsequently increased between February 2016 and October 2018. However, the retail selling prices remained stable during the entire period. This disparity in the change in global and Indian retail prices was because of the subsequent changes in taxes. For instance, central taxes were increased by Rs 11 and 13 between June 2014 and January 2016 on petrol and diesel respectively. Subsequently, taxes were decreased by four rupees between February 2016 and October 2018 for petrol and diesel. Similarly, during January-April 2020, following a sharp decline of 69% in the global crude oil prices, the central government increased the excise duty on petrol and diesel by Rs 10 per litre and Rs 13 per litre, respectively in May 2020.
Sharp increase in excise duty collections
As a result of the increase in excise duty in May 2020, the excise duty collection increased sharply from Rs 2.38 lakh crore in 2019-20 to Rs 3.84 lakh crore in 2020-21. The year-on-year growth rate of excise duty collection increased from 4% in 2019-20 to 67% in 2020-21. However, sales tax collections (from petroleum products) during that period remained more or less constant (Figure 3).
Figure 3: Excise duty and sales tax/ VAT collection from petroleum products (in Rs lakh crore)
Note: The excise duty component in the figure includes cess on crude oil.
Sources: Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell, Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas; PRS.
Share of states in excise duty has decreased over the years
Though central taxes (such as excise duty) are levied by the centre, it has only 59% of the revenue from these taxes. The remaining 41% of the revenue is required to be devolved to the state governments as per the recommendations of the 15th Finance Commission. These devolved taxes are un-tied in nature, states can spend them according to their own discretion. The excise duty levied on petrol and diesel consists of two broad components: (i) tax component (i.e., basic excise duty), and (ii) cess and surcharge component. Of this, only the revenue generated from the tax component is devolved to states. Revenue generated by the centre from any cess or surcharge is not devolved to states. Currently, the Agriculture Infrastructure and Development Cess, and the Road and Infrastructure Cess are levied on the sale of petrol and diesel in addition to the surcharge.
In the Union Budget 2021-22, the Agriculture Infrastructure and Development cess on petrol and diesel was announced at Rs 2.5 per litre and Rs 4 per litre, respectively. However, simultaneously, the basic excise duty and surcharge were reduced by equal amounts, so that the overall rate remains the same. Essentially, this provision shifted a revenue of Rs 1.5 per litre of petrol and Rs 3 per litre of diesel from the states’ divisible pool of taxes to the cess and surcharge revenue, which is entirely with the centre. Similarly, over the last four years, the share of tax component in the excise duty has decreased by 40% in petrol and 59% in diesel (table 2). At present, majority of the excise duty levied on petrol (96%) and diesel (94%) is in the form of cess and surcharge, due to which it is entirely under the centre’s share (Table 2).
Table 2: Break up of excise duty (Rs per litre)
|
Excise duty |
Petrol |
Diesel |
||||||
|
Apr-17 |
% share of total |
Feb-21 |
% share |
Apr-17 |
% share of total |
Feb-21 |
% share |
|
|
Tax (devolved to states) |
9.48 |
44% |
1.4 |
4% |
11.33 |
65% |
1.8 |
6% |
|
Cess and surcharge (centre) |
12 |
56% |
31.5 |
96% |
6 |
35% |
30 |
94% |
|
Total |
21.48 |
100% |
32.9 |
100% |
17.33 |
100% |
31.8 |
100% |
Sources: Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell, Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas; PRS
As a result, the devolution to states out of the excise duty has declined over the last four years. Even though the excise duty collections have increased sharply between 2019-20 and 2020-21, the devolved component has declined from Rs 26,464 to Rs 19,578 (revised estimate) in the same period.
Annexure
Table 3: Sales taxes/VAT rates levied on petrol and diesel across states (as on October 1, 2021)
|
State/UT |
Petrol |
Diesel |
|
Andaman & Nicobar Islands |
6% |
6% |
|
Andhra Pradesh |
31% VAT + Rs.4/litre VAT+Rs.1/litre Road Development Cess an d Vat thereon |
22.25% VAT + Rs.4/litre VAT+Rs.1/litre Road Development Cess and Vat thereon |
|
Arunachal Pradesh |
20% |
13% |
|
Assam |
32.66% or Rs.22.63 per litre whichever is higher as VAT minus Rebate of Rs.5 per Litre |
23.66% or Rs.17.45 per litre whichever is higher as VAT minus Rebate of Rs.5 per Litre |
|
Bihar |
26% or Rs 16.65/Litre whichever is higher (30% Surcharge on VAT as irrecoverable tax) |
19% or Rs 12.33/Litre whichever is higher (30% Surcharge on VAT as irrecoverable tax) |
|
Chandigarh |
Rs.10/KL cess +22.45% or Rs.12.58/Litre whichever is higher |
Rs.10/KL cess + 14.02% or Rs.7.63/Litre whichever is higher |
|
Chhattisgarh |
25% VAT + Rs.2/litre VAT |
25% VAT + Rs.1/litre VAT |
|
Dadra and Nagar Haveli and Daman and Diu |
20% VAT |
20% VAT |
|
Delhi |
30% VAT |
Rs.250/KL air ambience charges + 16.75% VAT |
|
Goa |
27% VAT + 0.5% Green cess |
23% VAT + 0.5% Green cess |
|
Gujarat |
20.1% VAT+ 4% Cess on Town Rate & VAT |
20.2% VAT + 4 % Cess on Town Rate & VAT |
|
Haryana |
25% or Rs.15.62/litre whichever is higher as VAT+5% additional tax on VAT |
16.40% VAT or Rs.10.08/litre whichever is higher as VAT+5% additional tax on VAT |
|
Himachal Pradesh |
25% or Rs 15.50/Litre- whichever is higher |
14% or Rs 9.00/Litre- whichever is higher |
|
Jammu & Kashmir |
24% MST+ Rs.5/Litre employment cess, Reduction of Rs.0.50/Litre |
16% MST+ Rs.1.50/Litre employment cess |
|
Jharkhand |
22% on the sale price or Rs. 17.00 per litre , which ever is higher + Cess of Rs 1.00 per Ltr |
22% on the sale price or Rs. 12.50 per litre , which ever is higher + Cess of Rs 1.00 per Ltr |
|
Karnataka |
35% sales tax |
24% sales tax |
|
Kerala |
30.08% sales tax+ Rs.1/litre additional sales tax + 1% cess |
22.76% sales tax+ Rs.1/litre additional sales tax + 1% cess |
|
Ladakh |
24% MST+ Rs.5/Litre employment cess, Reduction of Rs.2.5/Litre |
16% MST+ Rs.1/Litre employment cess , Reduction of Rs.0.50/Litre |
|
Lakshadweep |
Nil |
Nil |
|
Madhya Pradesh |
33 % VAT + Rs.4.5/litre VAT+1%Cess |
23% VAT+ Rs.3/litre VAT+1% Cess |
|
Maharashtra – Mumbai, Thane , Navi Mumbai, Amravati & Aurangabad |
26% VAT+ Rs.10.12/Litre additional tax |
24% VAT+ Rs.3.00/Litre additional tax |
|
Maharashtra (Rest of State) |
25% VAT+ Rs.10.12/Litre additional tax |
21% VAT+ Rs.3.00/Litre additional tax |
|
Manipur |
32% VAT |
18% VAT |
|
Meghalaya |
20% or Rs15.00/Litre- whichever is higher (Rs.0.10/Litre pollution surcharge) |
12% or Rs9.00/Litre- whichever is higher (Rs.0.10/Litre pollution surcharge) |
|
Mizoram |
25% VAT |
14.5% VAT |
|
Nagaland |
25% VAT or Rs. 16.04/litre whichever is higher +5% surcharge + Rs.2.00/Litre as road maintenance cess |
16.50% VAT or Rs. 10.51/litre whichever is higher +5% surcharge + Rs.2.00/Litre as road maintenance cess |
|
Odisha |
32% VAT |
28% VAT |
|
Puducherry |
23% VAT |
17.75% VAT |
|
Punjab |
Rs.2050/KL (cess)+ Rs.0.10 per Litre (Urban Transport Fund) + 0.25 per Litre (Special Infrastructure Development Fee)+24.79% VAT+10% additional tax on VAT |
Rs.1050/KL (cess) + Rs.0.10 per Litre (Urban Transport Fund) +0.25 per Litre (Special Infrastructure Development Fee) + 15.94% VAT+10% additional tax on VAT |
|
Rajasthan |
36% VAT+Rs 1500/KL road development cess |
26% VAT+ Rs.1750/KL road development cess |
|
Sikkim |
25.25% VAT+ Rs.3000/KL cess |
14.75% VAT + Rs.2500/KL cess |
|
Tamil Nadu |
13% + Rs.11.52 per litre |
11% + Rs.9.62 per litre |
|
Telangana |
35.20% VAT |
27% VAT |
|
Tripura |
25% VAT+ 3% Tripura Road Development Cess |
16.50% VAT+ 3% Tripura Road Development Cess |
|
Uttar Pradesh |
26.80% or Rs 18.74/Litre whichever is higher |
17.48% or Rs 10.41/Litre whichever is higher |
|
Uttarakhand |
25% or Rs 19 Per Ltr whichever is greater |
17.48% or Rs Rs 10.41 Per Ltr whichever is greater |
|
West Bengal |
25% or Rs.13.12/litre whichever is higher as sales tax+ Rs.1000/KL cess – Rs 1000/KL sales tax rebate (20% Additional tax on VAT as irrecoverable tax) |
17% or Rs.7.70/litre whichever is higher as sales tax + Rs 1000/KL cess – Rs 1000/KL sales tax rebate (20% Additional tax on VAT as irrecoverable tax) |
Sources: Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell, Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas; PRS.
