The Election Commission has announced the schedule for the election of the President of India. The last date for nominations is June 30, elections will be held on July 19, and counting will take place on July 22. The BJD and AIADMK have proposed the name of Mr. P.A. Sangma. The Samajwadi Party and Trinamool Congress have suggested three names. Other parties or alliances have not announced any contenders. Our calculations show that no single party or alliance has the numbers to unilaterally elect candidates of its choice. A candidate will need 5,48,507 votes to be elected as the President. If the UPA were to vote as a consolidated block, its vote tally would reach 4,49,847 (41% of the total votes). Among the Congress allies, Trinamool holds the largest number of votes (47,898). If Trinamool decides to support some other candidate, the UPA tally will fall to 4,01,949 votes (37% of the total). The votes held by the major alliances are given in the table below:
| Coalition | Value of votes | Percentage of total votes |
| UPA |
4,49,847 |
41.0% |
| NDA |
3,03,912 |
27.7% |
| Left |
52,282 |
4.8% |
| Bahujan Samaj Party |
43,723 |
4.0% |
| Samajwadi Party |
68,943 |
6.3% |
| Biju Janata Dal |
30,215 |
2.8% |
| AIADMK |
36,216 |
3.3% |
| Others |
1,11,874 |
10.2% |
| Total |
10,97,012 |
|
| Minimum required to be elected |
5,48,507 |
|
A detailed break-up of votes held by each party is given in the table below:
| Party | Value of votes | Percentage of total votes |
| Indian National Congress |
3,31,855 |
30.30% |
| Bharatiya Janata Party |
2,32,454 |
21.20% |
| Samajwadi Party |
68,943 |
6.30% |
| All India Trinamool Congress |
47,898 |
4.40% |
| Bahujan Samaj Party |
43,723 |
4.00% |
| Janata Dal (United) |
41,574 |
3.80% |
| All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) |
36,216 |
3.30% |
| Communist Party of India (Marxist) |
35,734 |
3.30% |
| Biju Janata Dal |
30,215 |
2.80% |
| Nationalist Congress Party |
24,058 |
2.20% |
| Independent |
23,830 |
2.20% |
| Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) |
21,780 |
2.00% |
| Telugu Desam Party |
21,256 |
1.90% |
| Shiv Sena |
18,320 |
1.70% |
| Shiromani Akali Dal |
11,564 |
1.10% |
| Communist Party of India |
9,758 |
0.90% |
| Rashtriya Janata Dal |
8,816 |
0.80% |
| Others |
7,420 |
0.70% |
| Janata Dal (Secular) |
6,138 |
0.60% |
| Jammu and Kashmir National Conference |
5,556 |
0.50% |
| Rashtriya Lok Dal |
5,412 |
0.50% |
| Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhaga (DMDK) |
5,104 |
0.50% |
| Jharkhand Mukti Morcha |
4,584 |
0.40% |
| Muslim League Kerala State Committee |
4,456 |
0.40% |
| Indian National Lok Dal |
4,068 |
0.40% |
| All India Forward Bloc |
3,961 |
0.40% |
| Jharkhand Vikas Morcha |
3,352 |
0.30% |
| Asom Gana Parishad |
3,284 |
0.30% |
| Telangana Rashtra Samiti |
3,044 |
0.30% |
| Revolutionary Socialist Party |
2,829 |
0.30% |
| Bodoland People's Front |
2,808 |
0.30% |
| All India United Democratic Front |
2,796 |
0.30% |
| Praja Rajyam Party |
2,664 |
0.20% |
| Maharashtra Navnirman Sena |
2,275 |
0.20% |
| Kerala Congress (M) |
2,076 |
0.20% |
| All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen |
1,744 |
0.20% |
| Nagaland People's Front |
1,722 |
0.20% |
| Sikkim Democratic Front |
1,640 |
0.10% |
| Peoples Democratic Party |
1,512 |
0.10% |
| Bahujan Vikas Aaghadi |
1,058 |
0.10% |
| Lok Janasakti Party |
957 |
0.10% |
| All Jharkhand Students Union |
880 |
0.10% |
| Haryana Janhit Congress |
820 |
0.10% |
| Mizo National Front |
732 |
0.10% |
| Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam |
708 |
0.10% |
| Swabhimani Paksha |
708 |
0.10% |
| Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi |
708 |
0.10% |
| YSR Congress Party |
708 |
0.10% |
| Peasants and Workers Party |
700 |
0.10% |
| Pattali Makkal Katchi |
528 |
0.00% |
| Manithaneya Makkal Katch |
352 |
0.00% |
| Puthiya Tamilaga |
352 |
0.00% |
| All India NR Congress |
240 |
0.00% |
| J&K National Panthers Party |
216 |
0.00% |
| Communist Party of India (Marxist-Leninist) |
176 |
0.00% |
| United Democratic Party |
153 |
0.00% |
| Lok Satta Party |
148 |
0.00% |
| Loktantrik Samajwadi Party |
129 |
0.00% |
| J&K Democratic Party Nationalist |
72 |
0.00% |
| People's Democratic Front |
72 |
0.00% |
| Uttarakhand Kranti Dal |
64 |
0.00% |
| Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party |
60 |
0.00% |
| People's Party of Arunachal |
32 |
0.00% |
| Total |
10,97,012 |
|
Notes: The electoral college for the Presidential election consists of the elected members of Lok Sabha, Rajya Sabha and all Legislative Assemblies. The winning candidate must secure at least 50% of the total value of votes polled. Each MP/ MLA’s vote has a pre-determined value based on the population they represent. For instance, an MP’s vote has a value of 708, an MLA from UP has a vote value of 208 and an MLA from Sikkim has a vote value of 7 (Note that all MPs, irrespective of the constituency or State they represent, have equal vote value). Parties in various coalitions: UPA: Congress, Trinamool, DMK, NCP,Rashtriya Lok Dal, J&K National Conference, Muslim League Kerala State Committee, Kerala Congress (M), All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen, Sikkim Democratic Front, Praja Rajyam Party, Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi NDA: BJP, JD(U), Shiv Sena, Shiromani Akali Dal, Janata Party Left: CPI(M), CPI, Revolutionary Socialist Party, All India Forward Bloc
Last week, oil-marketing companies (or OMCs, such as Indian Oil Corporation Limited and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited) raised the price of domestic LPG in the country. [1] The price of a domestic cylinder (14.2kg) has increased from Rs 714 in January 2020 to Rs 858.5 in February 2020. This is a 20% hike in the price of a LPG cylinder. Note that this is the sixth consecutive month for which LPG prices have been revised upwards. Figure 1 shows the variation in price of a domestic (non-subsidised) LPG cylinder in Delhi over the last year.
Figure 1: Variation in price of non-subsidised domestic LPG cylinder
Sources: Indian Oil and Corporation Limited; PRS.
How is the price of LPG cylinders determined?
LPG prices are revised every month. The price is determined by public sector OMCs namely, Indian Oil Corporation Limited, Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited and Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited, in line with the changes in the international market prices and other market conditions. [2] The international market price affects the import parity price of petroleum products (the price that importers pay for import of product at the respective Indian ports). This includes exchange rate, ocean freight, insurance and customs duty among others.
The Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas has stated that the recent hike in the price of LPG cylinder is due to a sharp rise in international LPG prices during January 2020 (from USD 448/Metric Tonne to USD 567/Metric Tonne). [3]
What is the difference between the price of a subsidised and non-subsidised cylinder?
The price determined by the OMCs reflects the price of a non-subsidised domestic LPG cylinder. The government modulates the effective price to provide subsidised LPG cylinders to consumers under the 'Pratyaksha Hastaantarit Laabh' direct benefit transfer (or DBT-PAHAL) scheme. [4] Under the scheme, a consumer (with annual income of up to Rs 10 lakh) can avail DBT cash-subsidy for a LPG cylinder. The beneficiaries buy LPG cylinders at market rate and subsequently receive subsidy directly in their bank accounts.
With the recent increase in price of a LPG cylinder, the government has increased the subsidy amount for PAHAL consumers from Rs. 153.86 per cylinder to Rs. 291.48 per cylinder (89% increase).3 This is done to ensure that the subsidized LPG consumers are insulated from the volatility of LPG prices in the international market. Table 1 shows the amount of subsidy provided by the government for LPG cylinder. Note that price of a subsidised cylinder has increased from Rs 494 to Rs 567 (14.8%) from February 2019 to February 2020.
Table 1: Difference between the price of subsidised and non-subsidised LPG cylinder
|
As on |
Non-subsidised cylinder |
Subsidised cylinder |
Subsidy |
|
February 2018 |
Rs 736.00 |
Rs 495.63 |
Rs 240.37 |
|
February 2019 |
Rs 659.00 |
Rs 493.53 |
Rs 165.47 |
|
February 2020 |
Rs 858.50 |
Rs 567.02 |
Rs 291.48 |
Sources: Unstarred Question No.1211, February 13, 2019, Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas, Rajya Sabha.
Note: Prices are at Delhi.
How many people avail the subsidy on LPG cylinders?
Currently, there are a total of 27.16 crore LPG (domestic) connections in the country.3 Of these, 26.12 crore (94%) consumers are beneficiaries under the PAHAL scheme, and therefore, can avail LPG cylinders at subsidised rates. Note that, under the scheme, a maximum of 12 subsidised cylinders per year can be availed under one connection. Further, a household cannot have more than one connection.
What is the cost of subsidy for the government?
The subsidy on domestic LPG is met through the budgetary grants of the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas. In 2020-21, the government is estimated to spend Rs 37,256 crore on LPG subsidy. This includes Rs 35,605 crore for DBT-PAHAL and Rs 1,118 crore for Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana. This is an increase of 9.3% from the expenditure in 2019-20 of Rs 34,086 crore (revised estimate). Note that LPG subsidy constitutes 87% of the Ministry's total budget (Rs 42,901 crore).
Figure 2 below shows the year-wise expenditure on LPG subsidy, and as a proportion of the total budget of the Ministry from 2015-16 to 2020-21.
Figure 2: LPG subsidy over the years (2015-16 to 2020-21).
Sources: Union Budget Documents; PRS.
For more trends and analysis related to the finances of the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas, see here.
[1] "LPG price hiked by Rs 144.5 per cylinder", Economic Times, February 12, 2020, https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/energy/oil-gas/lpg-price-hiked-by-rs-144-5-per-cylinder/articleshow/74096745.cms.
[2] Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ), Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell, https://www.ppac.gov.in/content/137_3_Faq.aspx.
[3] "LPG Price is Derived based on International Market Price", Press Information Bureau, Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas, February 13, 2020.
[4] PAHAL-Direct Benefits Transfer for LPG (DBTL) Consumers Scheme, Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas, http://petroleum.nic.in/dbt/whatisdbtl.html.
