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A note of gratitude to Mr. N. Vaghul

Legislation

The financial health of Air India

Prachee Mishra - May 31, 2017

Recently there have been news reports about the NITI Aayog submitting its recommendations on improving the financial health of Air India to the Ministry of Finance.[1],[2]  The Civil Aviation Ministers have also mentioned that the Ministry will soon propose a roadmap for the rejuvenation of the national airline.  While the NITI Aayog report is not out in the public domain yet, we present a few details on the financial health of the airline.

Finances of Air India

In 2015-16, Air India earned a revenue of Rs 20,526 crore and registered losses of Rs 3,837 crore.  As of March 31, 2015, the total debt of Air India was at Rs 51,367 crore.[3]  This includes Rs 22,574 crore outstanding on account of aircraft loans.  The figure below shows the losses incurred by Air India in the last few years (2007-16).

image(1)

According to the Ministry of Civil Aviation, reasons for Air India’s losses include: (i) the adverse impact of exchange rate variation due to the weakening of Indian Rupee, (ii) high interest burden, (iii) increase in competition, especially from low cost carriers, and (iv) high fuel prices.[4]  The National Transport Development Policy Committee (NTDPC), in its report in 2013, had observed that with the increase in the number of airlines in the market, Air India has been struggling to make a transition from a monopoly market to a competitive one.[5]  These struggles have been primarily regarding improving its efficiency, and competing with the private airlines.

Turnaround Plan and Financial Restructuring

In order to bail out the company, the government had approved the Turnaround Plan (TAP) and Financial Restructuring Plan (FRP) of Air India in April 2012.[6]  Under the plans, the government would infuse equity into Air India subject to meeting certain milestones such as Pay Load Factor (measures capacity utilisation), on time performance, fleet utilisation, yield factor (average fare paid per mile, per passenger), and rationalisation of the emolument structure of employees.7  The equity infusion included financial support towards the repayment of the principal, as well as the interest payments on the government loans for aircraft acquisition.  Under the TAP/FRP, the central government was to infuse Rs 30,231 crore till 2020-21.  As of 2016-17, the Ministry has infused an equity amount of Rs 24,745 crore.[7]

In 2017-18, the Ministry has allocated Rs 1,800 crore towards Air India which is 67% of the Ministry’s total budget for the year.[8]  However, this amount is 30% lower than the TAP commitment of Rs 2,587 crore.3  In 2016-17, while Air India had sought and equity infusion of Rs 3,901 crore, the government approved Rs 2,465 crore as the equity infusion.[9]  The Standing Committee on Transport, Tourism, and Culture examining the 2017-18 budget estimates noted that reducing the equity infusion in Air India might adversely affect the financial situation of the company.[10]  It recommended that the government must allocate the amount committed under TAP.  The Ministry had also observed that due to reduction of equity infusion, Air India has to arrange funds through borrowing which costs additional amount of interest to be paid by the government.[11]

As per the Ministry, Air India has achieved most of the targets set out in TAP.[12]  Despite running into losses, it achieved an operating profit of Rs 105 crore in FY 2015-16.[13]  Air India’s performance in some of the segments are provided in the table below.

Table 1: Air India’s performance

  2011-12 2014-15
Overall Network On Time Performance (measures adherence to time schedule) 68.2% 72.7%
Passenger Load Factor (measures capacity utilisation of the airline) 67.9% 73.7%
Network Yield achieved (in Rs/ RPKM)* 3.74 4.35
Number of Revenue Passengers (in million) 13.4 16.9
Operating Loss (in Rs crore) 5,139 2,171

* Note: RPKM or Revenue Passenger Kilometre performed refers to number of seats for which the carrier has earned revenue.

Sources: Lok Sabha Questions; PRS.

The NTDPC had observed that with its excessive and unproductive manpower, failure to invest in the technology required to keep it competitive, and poor operations, Air India’s future looks risky.  It had also questioned the rationale for a national airline.  It had suggested that the government must frame a decisive policy with regard to Air India, and clarify its future accordingly.5  It had recommended that Air India’s liabilities should be written off and be dealt with separately, and the airline should be run on complete operational and financial autonomy.5

Need for competitive framework in the sector

With the entrance of several private players in the market, the domestic aviation market has grown significantly in the last decade.  The market share of an airline is directly related to its capacity share in the market.  While private carriers have added capacity in the domestic market, the capacity induction (adding more aircrafts) of Air India has not kept up with the private carriers.  This has resulted in decrease in market share of Air India from 17% in 2008-09 to 14% in 2016-17.[14]

The Committee looking at the competitive framework of the civil aviation sector had observed that the national carrier gets preferential treatment through access to government funding, and flying rights.[15]  It had recommended that competitive neutrality should be ensured between private carriers and the national carrier, which could be achieved by removing the regulations that provide such preferential treatment to Air India.  The NTDPC had also noted that the presence of a state-owned enterprise should not distort the market for other private players.6  It had recommended that the Ministry should consider developing regulations that improve the overall financial health of the airline sector.

While Air India’s performance has improved following the TAP, along with the equity infusion from government, its debt still remains high and has been gradually increasing.  In light of this, it remains to be seen what the government will propose with regard to the rejuvenation of the national airline, and ensure a competitive and fair market for all the players in the airline market.

[1] “Govt to prepare Air India revival plan within 3 months, amid calls for privatization”, Livemint, May 31, 2017, http://www.livemint.com/Politics/0koi5Hyidj1gVD3wOWTruM/Govt-says-all-options-open-for-Air-India-revival.html.

[2] “Air India selloff: Fixing airline’s future is more important than past”, Financial Express, May 31, 2017, http://www.financialexpress.com/opinion/why-fixing-air-indias-future-more-important-than-past/693777/.

[3] Lok Sabha Questions, Unstarred question no 382, Ministry of Civil Aviation, February 25, 2016, http://164.100.47.194/Loksabha/Questions/QResult15.aspx?qref=28931&lsno=16.

[4] Lok Sabha Questions, Unstarred question no 353, Ministry of Civil Aviation, November 17, 2016, http://164.100.47.194/Loksabha/Questions/QResult15.aspx?qref=40733&lsno=16.

[5] “Volume 3, Chapter 3: Civil Aviation”, India Transport Report: Moving India to 2032, National Transport Development Policy Committee, June 17, 2014, http://planningcommission.nic.in/sectors/NTDPC/volume3_p1/civil_v3_p1.pdf.

[6] “Government Approves Financial Restructuring and Turn Around Plan of Air India”, Press Information Bureau, Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA), April 12, 2012, http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=82231.

[7] Lok Sabha Questions, Unstarred question no 472, Ministry of Civil Aviation, April 6, 2017, http://164.100.47.194/Loksabha/Questions/QResult15.aspx?qref=51752&lsno=16.

[8] Notes on Demands for Grants 2017-18, Demand no 9, Ministry of Civil Aviation, http://indiabudget.nic.in/ub2017-18/eb/sbe9.pdf.

[9] Lok Sabha Questions, Unstarred question no 4809, Ministry of Civil Aviation, March 30, 2017, http://164.100.47.194/Loksabha/Questions/QResult15.aspx?qref=51108&lsno=16.

[10] “244th report: Demand for Grants (2017-18) of Ministry of Civil Aviation”, Standing Committee on Transport, Tourism and Culture, March 17, 2017, http://164.100.47.5/newcommittee/reports/EnglishCommittees/Committee%20on%20Transport,%20Tourism%20and%20Culture/244.pdf.

[11] “218th report: Demand for Grants (2015-16) of Ministry of Civil Aviation”, Standing Committee on Transport, Tourism and Culture, April 28, 2015.

[12] Lok Sabha Questions, Unstarred question no 307, Ministry of Civil Aviation, February 25, 2016, http://164.100.47.190/loksabhaquestions/annex/7/AU307.pdf.

[13] Lok Sabha Questions, Unstarred question no 1566, Ministry of Civil Aviation, March 9, 2017, http://www.loksabha.nic.in/Members/QResult16.aspx?qref=47532.

[14] Lok Sabha Questions, Unstarred question no 312, Ministry of Civil Aviation, March 23, 2017, http://164.100.47.194/Loksabha/Questions/QResult15.aspx?qref=49742&lsno=16.

[15] Report of the Committee Constituted for examination of the recommendations made in the Study Report on Competitive Framework of Civil Aviation Sector in India, Ministry of Civil Aviation, June 2012, http://civilaviation.gov.in/sites/default/files/moca_001870_0.pdf.

 

Parliament

President’s Address 2014 to 2017: Plan vs. Performance

Roopal Suhag - February 6, 2017

Budget Session 2017 commenced with the President, Pranab Mukherjee, addressing a joint sitting of Parliament on January 31, 2017.  This address by the President highlights the legislative and policy activities and achievements of the government in the previous year.  In addition, it gives a broad indication of the government’s agenda for the year ahead.  The address is followed by a motion of thanks that is moved in each House by ruling party MPs.  This is followed by a discussion on the address and concludes with the Prime Minister replying to the points raised during the discussion.

In the lower house, the motion of thanks has begun today.  It began in the upper house on February 2, 2017.  Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha have allocated two and three days for the discussion, respectively.  In this context, we present an analysis of the salient points of the agenda proposed in the President’s address from 2014 to 2017 and the current status of its implementation.

Policy priority stated in the President’s address (2014 to 2017) Current Status 
Macroeconomy
  • GDP growth has made India the world’s fastest growing economies, among large economies.
  • Foreign exchange reserves have been at an all-time high, and inflation, current account deficit and fiscal deficit have consistently reduced since 2014.
  • The GDP is estimated to grow at 7.1% in 2016-17, compared to its growth of 7.9% in 2015-16.[i]
  • The Economic Survey 2016-17 has stated the GDP growth to be between 6.75% and 7.5% in 2017-18.[ii]
  • The average CPI inflation declined from 5.6% in December 2015 to 3.4% in December 2016.[iii]  In the same period, food inflation also decreased from 6.4% from 1.4%.3
  • Current account deficit decreased from USD 14.7 billion in 2015-16 (April-September) to USD 3.7 billion in the corresponding period in 2016-17.[iv]
  • Foreign exchange reserves presently stand at Rs 24,54,950 crore, an increase of Rs 1,02,130 crore from 2016.[v]
Poverty eradication and financial inclusion
  • The Pradhan Mantri Jan Dhan Yojana was launched to provide universal access to banking facilities.  The coverage under the scheme is close to 100%.
  • The proposed Postal Payment Bank of India will further boost financial inclusion.
  • Presently, around 27 crore accounts have been opened under the scheme.[vi]  However, out of these, 25% of the accounts are zero balance accounts.6
  • The Indian Postal Payments Bank has started.[vii]  The postal network with over 1.5 lakh post offices will also function as postal banks.7
Agriculture and water security
  • Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana has expanded risk-coverage, doubled the sum insured, and facilitated low premium for farmers.
  • The government is also committed to implementation of Interlinking of Rivers Project.
  • Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana has been implemented by 21 states.[viii]  3.66 crore farmers have been covered under the scheme, out of a total of 11 crore farmers in the country.[ix]
  • In April 2015, a Task Force was constituted on the Interlinking of Rivers Project.[x]  The Task Force is yet to submit its report.  The sub-Committee on restructuring the National Water Development Agency in September 2015 had recommended that a National Interlinking of Rivers Authority should be created through an Act of Parliament.[xi]  So far, further steps have not been taken in this regard.
Energy
  • The Electricity (Amendment) Bill, 2014 has been introduced to bring reforms in the electricity sector.
  • Renewable energy capacity will manifold to 175 GW by 2022.
  • The Electricity (Amendment) Bill, 2014 is pending in the Parliament.  The Standing Committee submitted its report on the Bill in May, 2015.[xii]
  • As of December 2016, 51 GW of renewable energy has been generated in the country.[xiii]  However, in 2016-17, only 26% of the target of the generation of renewable energy could be achieved.13
Governance and legal reforms
  • Close to 1,800 obsolete legislation are at various stages of repeal.
  • My government is committed to providing 33% reservation to women in the Parliament and state Legislative Assemblies.
  • Amendments to the Prevention of Corruption Act are also on the anvil.
  • 758 Appropriation Acts and 295 laws have been repealed.[xiv],[xv]
  • No Bill in relation to providing 33% reservation to women has been introduced yet.
  • The Prevention of Corruption (Amendment) Bill, 2013, is presently pending in Parliament.  The Standing Committee and Rajya Sabha Select Committee have submitted their reports on the Bill.
Defence
  • One Rank One Pension scheme will be implemented.
  • Defence procurement procedure has been streamlined with a focus on indigenously designed, developed and manufactured weapon systems.
  • Recognising the importance of coastal security, the government will set up a National Maritime Authority.
  • The government will also build a National War Memorial to honour the gallantry of our soldiers.
  • The implementation of One Rank One Pension scheme has been initiated.[xvi]  In 2016-17, Rs 12, 456 crore was allocated to the scheme.[xvii]
  • The Defence Procurement Policy 2016 added an additional category “Buy (Indian-Indigenously Designed, Developed and Manufactured) as the most preferred way of capital acquisition.[xviii]
  • The National Maritime Authority and National War Memorial are yet to be established.
Environment
  • Funds will be released to states and union territories for aggressive afforestation.
  • To conserve the Himalayan ecology, a National Mission on Himalayas will be launched.
  • Target for emission standards for motor vehicles has been drastically brought forward to achieve Bharat Stage –VI norm by 2021.
  • Parliament passed the Compensatory Afforestation Fund Bill, 2015 in July 2016.[xix]  The Bill establishes the National Compensatory Afforestation Fund and a State Compensatory Afforestation Fund for each state.  These Funds will be primarily spent on afforestation.
  • The National Mission on Himalayas is yet to be launched.
  • To make Bharat Stage-VI norms applicable by April 1, 2020, a draft notification was released in February 2016.[xx]
Rural and Urban Development
  • To develop 300 rural growth clusters across the country, Shyama Prasad Mukherji Rurban Mission has also been launched.
  • Mission Antyodaya, an intensive participatory planning exercise has been initiated.
  • Annual action plan for 500 cities with an outlay of Rs 50,000 crore has been approved.
  • To implement the Rurban mission, Rs 5,142 crore has been allocated for the period from 2015-16 to 2019-20.[xxi]
  • Under Mission Antyodaya, the release of funds has been lower than the allocated amount in the last three years, from 2014-15 to 2016-17.[xxii]
  • Under the Smart Cities Mission, Rs 4,572 has been released to 98 cities during the years 2015-16 and 2016-17.[xxiii]
Health
  • My government will formulate a New Health Policy and roll out a National Health Assurance Mission.

 

  • Pradhan Mantri Bharatiya Jan Aushadi Pariyojana has been launched to ensure that the poor have access to quality medicines at affordable prices.
  • A group was constituted in July 2014 to prepare a comprehensive background paper for the roll out of the National Health Assurance Mission.[xxiv]  Further progress in this regard has not been made.
  • The draft National Health Policy was released in December 2014 for public comments and suggestions.[xxv]  The Policy has not been finalised yet.
  • Under the Pradhan Mantri Bharatiya Jan Aushadi Pariyojana, Pradhan Mantri Bhartiya Janaushadhi Kendras are proposed to be opened in all 630 districts of the country.[xxvi]
Women and child development
  • A Bill to amend the Juvenile Justice Act has been introduced in Parliament to reform the law relating to juvenile offences.
  • The Juvenile Justice (Care and Protection of Children) Bill, 2014 was passed by Parliament in December 2015.[xxvii]  The Bill permits juveniles between the ages of 16-18 years to be tried as adults for heinous offences.


[Sources: President’s Address to the Parliament from 2014 to 2017; PRS.]

For important highlights from the President’s address in 2017, please see here.  For an analysis of the status of implementation of the announcements made in the 2016 address, please see here.


[i] “Press note on First Revised Estimates of National Income, 2015-16”, Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, January 31, 2017, http://mospi.nic.in/sites/default/files/press_release/nad_PR_31jan17.pdf.

[ii] Economic Survey, 2016-17, http://finmin.nic.in/indiabudget2017-2018/e_survey.asp.

[iii] “Press Release Consumer Price Index Numbers on Base 2012=100 for Rural, Urban and Combined for the Month of December 2016”, Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, January 12, 2017,http://mospi.nic.in/sites/default/files/press_release/CPI_PR12jan17th.pdf

[iv] “Developments in India’s Balance of Payments during the second quarter of 2016-17”, Reserve Bank of India, December 13, 2016, https://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx?prid=38884.

[v] “Developments in India’s Balance of Payments during the second quarter of 2016-17”, Reserve Bank of India, December 13, 2016, https://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx?prid=38884.

[vi] Progress Report, Pradhan Mantri Jan Dhan Yojana (Last accessed on January 24, 2017),http://www.pmjdy.gov.in/account.

[vii] “Cabinet approves setting up of India Post Payments Bank”, Cabinet, June 1, 2016.

[viii] “Achievements of Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare”, Ministry of Agriculture, January 2, 2016.

[ix]  “Agricultural Statistics at a Glance 2015”, Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmer’s Welfare, Ministry of Agriculture and Farmer’s Welfare, http://eands.dacnet.nic.in/PDF/Agricultural_Statistics_At_Glance-2015.pdf.

[x] “Task Force on Interlinking Rivers Constituted”, Press Information Bureau, Ministry of Water Resources, April 14, 2015.

[xi] Special Committee for Interlinking of Rivers, National Water Development Agency,http://www.nwda.gov.in/writereaddata/ilr/notification.pdf.

[xii] Report No. 4, Standing Committee on Energy, ‘The Electricity (Amendment) Bill, 2014’, Lok Sabha, May 2015, Standing Committee on Energy, http://www.prsindia.org/uploads/media/Electricity/SC%20report-Electricity.pdf.

[xiii] “Physical Progress (Achievements)”, Ministry of New and Renewable Energy,  March  30, 2015,http://mnre.gov.in/mission-and-vision-2/achievements/.

[xiv] Appropriation Acts (Repeal) Act, 2016, http://lawmin.nic.in/ld/Act22of2016AppropriationActsrepeal.pdf.

[xv] Repealing and Amending Act, 2016, http://lawmin.nic.in/ld/Act23of2016RepealingandAmending.pdf.

[xvi] 12(1)/2014/D (Pen/PoI)- Part II, Government of India, Ministry of Defence, Department of Ex- Servicemen Welfare, November 7, 2015, http://www.desw.gov.in/sites/upload_files/desw/files/pdf/OR OP-DESW-MOD.pdf.

[xvii] Lok Sabha Unstarred Question 1696, Ministry of Defence, November 25, 2016,http://164.100.47.190/loksabhaquestions/annex/10/AU1696.pdf.

[xviii] “Year End Review 2016”, Ministry of Defence, December 31, 2016,http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=156049.

[xix] The Compensatory Afforestation Fund Act, 2016,http://www.prsindia.org/uploads/media/Compensatory%20Afforestation/CAMPA%20act,%202016.pdf.

[xx] Rajya Sabha Unstarred Question No 82, Ministry of Road Transport and Highways, April 25, 2016.

[xxi] Rajya Sabha Unstarred Question No 914, Department of Rural Development, May 2, 2016 ,http://164.100.47.234/question/annex/239/Au914.pdf.

[xxii] Lok Sabha Unstarred Question No 4443, Ministry of Housing and Urban Poverty Alleviation, December 14, 2016, http://164.100.47.190/loksabhaquestions/annex/10/AU4443.pdf.

[xxiii] Lok Sabha Unstarred Question No 199, Ministry of Urban Development, November 16, 2016,http://164.100.47.190/loksabhaquestions/annex/10/AU199.pdf.

[xxiv] “Rolling out of National Health Assurance Mission”, Press Information Bureau, Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, July 15, 2014.

[xxv] Draft National Health Policy 2015, December 2014, Ministry of Health and Family Welfare,http://www.mohfw.nic.in/showfile.php?lid=3014.

[xxvi] Pradhan Mantri Bharatiya Jan Aushadi Pariyojana guidelines,http://janaushadhi.gov.in/data/Individuals_December_2016.pdf.

[xxvii] The Juvenile Justice (Care and Protection of Children) Act, 2015,http://www.prsindia.org/uploads/media/Juvenile%20Justice/Juvenile%20Justice%20Act,%202015.pdf.

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