The Lokpal and Lokayuktas Bill, 2011 was passed by Lok Sabha yesterday. The Bill will be discussed next by Rajya Sabha. Unlike the Lok Sabha, where the UPA government holds a majority in the House, the composition is different in Rajya Sabha. As on 28th December 2011, the total strength of Rajya Sabha is 243 members . The UPA has a combined strength of 95 members in the House, well below the 50% mark. (Of course, there will be some absent members which will change the arithmetic a bit.) The passage of the Bill thus depends on the stand taken by other political parties and their numbers in the House. Here's how the figures stack up:
| Party | Numbers |
| Indian National Congress (INC) | 71 |
| Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) | 7 |
| Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) | 7 |
| All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) | 6 |
| Jammu and Kashmir National Conference | 2 |
| Sikkim Democratic Front (SDF) | 1 |
| Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) | 1 |
| Total UPA | 95 |
| Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) | 51 |
| Janata Dal (United) | 8 |
| Shiv Sena (SS) | 4 |
| Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) | 3 |
| Total NDA | 66 |
| Communist Party of India (Marxist) | 13 |
| Communist Party of India (CPI) | 5 |
| All India Forward Bloc (AIFB) | 1 |
| Total Left | 19 |
| Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP ) | 18 |
| Biju Janata Dal (BJD ) | 6 |
| All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazagham (AIADMK ) | 5 |
| Samajwadi Party (SP ) | 5 |
| Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD ) | 4 |
| Asom Gana Parishad (AGP ) | 2 |
| Bodoland People's Front (BPF ) | 1 |
| Indian National Lok Dal (INLD ) | 1 |
| Lok Janasakti Party (LJP ) | 1 |
| Mizo National Front (MNF ) | 1 |
| Nagaland People's Front (NPF ) | 1 |
| Telugu Desam Party (TDP ) | 4 |
| Nominated | 8 |
| Independent and others | 6 |
| Total | 243 |
Over the next few weeks, Assembly elections are scheduled to be held in five States – Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Manipur and Goa. As parties prepare for the upcoming elections, we take a look at the electoral trends in these states over the past 25 years. We see that electoral fortunes in some states have fluctuated widely. The electoral mandate in UP has varied over the last 25 years. Five different parties -- Congress, Janata Dal, BJP, SP and BSP have been the single largest party in the Assembly at some point in time. In Punjab, the Akalis and the Congress have alternately controlled the government. In Uttarakhand, the 2007 elections saw the BJP take over control from the Congress. In Manipur and Goa, Congress has been dominant player in elections. In both states, it emerged as the single largest party in all but one election since 1984. In Manipur, the Congress lost this status to the Manipur State Congress Party (MSCP), a splinter group of the Congress in 2000. In Goa, it lost this status to BJP in 2002. The results of Uttar Pradesh elections will have the highest impact on national politics. The state has 80 out of 543 elected seats in Lok Sabha and 31 out of 231 elected seats in Rajya Sabha. The results could give an indication of the prospects for these parties in the next general elections, and may also change the composition of Rajya Sabha over the next few years. Given that there are five parties (BSP, SP, BJP, Congress and RLD) with a significant base in the state, the possibilities of post poll arrangements are also wide open. For more details, see our Vital Stats.
