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The Lokpal and Lokayuktas Bill, 2011 was passed by Lok Sabha yesterday. The Bill will be discussed next by Rajya Sabha. Unlike the Lok Sabha, where the UPA government holds a majority in the House, the composition is different in Rajya Sabha. As on 28th December 2011, the total strength of Rajya Sabha is 243 members . The UPA has a combined strength of 95 members in the House, well below the 50% mark. (Of course, there will be some absent members which will change the arithmetic a bit.) The passage of the Bill thus depends on the stand taken by other political parties and their numbers in the House. Here's how the figures stack up:
Party | Numbers |
Indian National Congress (INC) | 71 |
Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) | 7 |
Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) | 7 |
All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) | 6 |
Jammu and Kashmir National Conference | 2 |
Sikkim Democratic Front (SDF) | 1 |
Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) | 1 |
Total UPA | 95 |
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) | 51 |
Janata Dal (United) | 8 |
Shiv Sena (SS) | 4 |
Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) | 3 |
Total NDA | 66 |
Communist Party of India (Marxist) | 13 |
Communist Party of India (CPI) | 5 |
All India Forward Bloc (AIFB) | 1 |
Total Left | 19 |
Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP ) | 18 |
Biju Janata Dal (BJD ) | 6 |
All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazagham (AIADMK ) | 5 |
Samajwadi Party (SP ) | 5 |
Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD ) | 4 |
Asom Gana Parishad (AGP ) | 2 |
Bodoland People's Front (BPF ) | 1 |
Indian National Lok Dal (INLD ) | 1 |
Lok Janasakti Party (LJP ) | 1 |
Mizo National Front (MNF ) | 1 |
Nagaland People's Front (NPF ) | 1 |
Telugu Desam Party (TDP ) | 4 |
Nominated | 8 |
Independent and others | 6 |
Total | 243 |
Well, that is the number of seats to be reserved for women in Lok Sabha in the first round if the women’s reservation bill is passed. The rules for determining number of seats to be reserved are as follows.
Example 1: Puducherry has one general seat. This will be reserved for women in the first election and open in second and third elections. Example 2: Manipur has two seats, of which one is reserved for STs. Thus, both seats will be reserved in the first election and open in the second and third elections. Example 3: Delhi has seven seats: six general and one SC. In the each election 2 seats (seven divided by three, rounded to nearest integer) will be reserved. In the first election, one general and one SC seat will be reserved, and in the next two elections, two general seats will be reserved. We compute that this results in 192, 179 and 175 seats (out of 545) being reserved for women in the first three elections. A similar computation shows that 1367, 1365 and 1364 (out of 4090 seats of the legislative assemblies of 28 states and Delhi) will be reserved for women in the first three elections. Excel file with detailed computation is available here.