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By Rohit and Jhalak Some Rajya Sabha seats will be contested over the next year.  The Presidential elections are also scheduled to be held in 2012.  The recent assembly elections has implications for both these elections.  The Presidential elections will depend on the strenght in the assemblies, in Lok Sabha and in Rajya Sabha (which could change over the next year).  Implications for Rajya Sabha Elections The composition of Rajya Sabha may undergo some changes.  A total of 12 Rajya Sabha seats are up for election in 2011.  This includes 6 seats from West Bengal, 3 from Gujarat and 1 each from Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu and Goa.  Another 65 seats, across 18 states, go for elections in early 2012.  The largest chunk of these seats comes from UP(10), followed by Andhra Pradesh(6), Bihar(6) and Maharashtra(6). Since Rajya Sabha members are elected by the elected members of the Legislative Assembly of the State, a change in the composition of the assembly can affect the election outcome.  We used the current assembly compositions to work out scenarios for Rajya Sabha in 2011 and 2012.  There could be alliances between parties for the Rajya Sabha elections, so we have estimated a range for each grouping (Scenario I and II) for 2012.  See Notes [1] and [2]. 

Parties/ Coalitions 2010 Scenario 2011 Scenario 2012
      I II
UPA 89 94 95 97
NDA 65 65 67 66
Left 22 19 14 14
BSP 18 18 19 19
SP 5 5 6 6
AIADMK 4 5 5 5
BJD 6 6 5 5
Other parties 18 18 20 19
Independent 6 6 5 5
Nominated 8 9 9 9
Total 241 245 245 245

Implications for the election of the President The President is elected in accordance with the provisions of Article 54 and 55 of the Constitution.  The electorate consists of the elected members of Lok Sabha, Rajya Sabha and all Legislative Assemblies.  Each MP/ MLA's vote has a pre-determined value based on the population they represent.  The election is held in accordance with the system of proportional representation by means of a single transferable vote.  The winning candidate must secure at least 50% of the total value of votes polled. (For details, refer to this Election Commission document).  There is no change in the Lok Sabha composition (unless there are bye-elections). Position in Legislative Assemblies After the recent round of assembly elections, the all-India MLA count adds up to:

UPA 1613
NDA 1106
Left 205
BSP 246
AIADMK 155
BJD 103
SP 95
Others 597

The above numbers can now be used to estimate the value of votes polled by each coalition. See Note [3]:

Value of votes cast Scenario - 1 Scenario - 2
UPA 439,437 440,853
NDA 307,737 307,029
Left 51,646 51,646
BSP 77,243 77,243
SP 38,531 38,531
AIADMK 36,392 36,392
BJD 28,799 28,799
Others 119,097 118,389
Total 1,098,882 1,098,882
Min. to be elected 549,442 549,442

The UPA has the highest value of votes polled but the figure is not sufficient to get its candidate elected.  Assuming that there are at most three candidates with significant support (UPA, NDA, and Left/Third Front), the winner will be the one who manages to bridge the gap with second preference votes.  On this factor, the UPA backed candidate is likely to hold the edge over others.  Notes: [1] At present, there are four vacant seats in Rajya Sabha (1 Maharashtra, 1 TN, 1 WB and 1 Nominated).  It is assumed that all these seats are filled up in 2011. [2] Three of the 11 nominated members in the current Rajya Sabha have declared their party affiliation as INC.  These have been included in the UPA count in the above analysis.  For the sake of simplicity, it is assumed that members who get nominated in 2011/ 12 are not aligned to any party/ coalition. [3] The above analysis is based on the assumption that the next set of assembly elections happen after the Presidential election.

As of April 22, 2020, Sikkim does not have any confirmed cases of COVID-19.  As of April 21, 2020, 87 samples have been sent for testing from Sikkim.  Of these, 80 have tested negative for COVID-19, and the results of seven samples are awaited.  The state has announced several policy decisions to prevent the spread of the virus and provide relief for those affected by it.  In this blog post, we summarise some of the key measures taken by the Sikkim state government in this regard as of April 22, 2020.  

Response before national lockdown

On March 16, the state government responded to the growing number of suspected cases in India by notifying certain directions to be applicable till April 15, 2020.  These included: (i) banning the entry of all domestic and foreign tourists in to the state, (ii) closing all educational institutes and anganwadis, (iii) prohibiting the use of recreational facilities such as, casinos, gym, and cinemas, (iii) closing three out of five check posts (border opening) for all visitors in to the state and opening the other two only for medical and police teams, and (iv) banning private industries from getting migrant workers from outside the state and avoiding large concentration of workers at one place.

On March 19, assembly of more than five people was prohibited in the state until April 15, 2020.  The government ordered the suspension of all non-essential work on March 19.  The supply of all essential commodities such as food grains, vegetables, sanitisers and masks was allowed.  Further, the formation of a sub-divisional task force to detect suspected cases was ordered.  

On March 22, the government regulated intra-state movement of private vehicles, two-wheelers and taxis on an odd-even basis (allowing plying of vehicles on alternate days as per the number plate) until April 15, 2020.  The government also reduced the budget session of the state to two days on March 23. 

On March 25, the central government announced on a 21-day country-wide lockdown till April 14.  During the lockdown the state government took various steps for physical containment, health, financial and welfare measures.  These are detailed below.

Measures taken during lockdown

Movement Restrictions

Certain movement restrictions were put across the state.   These include:

  • Movement of vehicles: Inter-state movement of vehicles was restricted to vehicles transporting essential goods.  These vehicles need to have a permanent pass for such movement.  On April 5, intra-state movement of vehicles was restricted to government officials, transportation of essential commodities, banks and PSUs, and media and cable networks.   Their passes are valid only from 8am to 5pm.
     
  • Validity of passes:  The state government noted that a large number of vehicle passes were issued due to various reasons.  On April 14, the government ordered that all passes issued by District Magistrates, and other Departmental Authorities (except those issued by the police, health department and forest and environment department) will be invalid from April 14.  New passes will be issued only by Magistrates and Block Development Officers.  
     
  • Securing borders:  In view of the COVID-19 pandemic and to check unauthorised cross-border infiltration from China, Nepal, and Bhutan, the state government secured all porous borders along the Rangpo river and other vulnerable areas.

Essential Goods and Services

On April 5, the state government issued an order requiring establishments such as shops, hotels, private offices, and commercial establishments to remain closed until April 15.  Establishments which were permitted to remain functional include law enforcement agencies, health services, electricity and water services, petrol pumps, and media.  Shops for PDS, groceries, vegetables, milk and, medicines were only allowed remain open from 9 am to 4 pm.

  • Valid prescription and label required:  On March 25, the state prohibited the sale of hand sanitisers without drug manufacturing licence label.  It also prohibited sale of N95 masks to general public without valid prescription. 
     
  • Transit camps:  On April 17, the state government notified that transit camps (temporary accommodation) will be set up for drivers and helpers of vehicles carrying essential goods.

Health Measures

On March 31, the Sikkim government identified and set up dedicated isolation wards and treatment centres in the STNM hospital, Sochakgang as a precautionary measure.  The government also issued directions for citizens to avoid getting infected by coronavirus.  These included social distancing, and maintaining proper hygiene.  

On April 18, the state government made it mandatory for all the public, students, teachers, and government employees, to install the Aarogya Setu application.  The government of India launched a mobile app called ‘Aarogya Setu’ to enable people to assess the risk of catching COVID-19 on April 2, 2020.   The app uses Bluetooth and Global Positioning System (GPS) based device location for contact tracing in order to prevent the spread of COVID-19. 

Welfare Measures

  • Economic relief package:  On March 27, an economic relief package was announced by the state government.   This included free ration in specific quantities (other than the PDS entitlement) to needy families in rural and urban areas, daily wagers, migrant labourers, casual workers, and stranded people.  Further, the government announced an additional incentive wage of Rs 300/day for tea workers at Temi-tea estate. 
     
  • Food distribution:  On April 16, the government announced that Asha workers will be given Rs 5,000 as honorarium for work done during COVID-19.  Further, it ordered the food and civil supply department to compile a list of all the left out beneficiaries for distribution of food relief packages.
     
  • Relief to stranded patients:  On April 16, the government announced that a financial relief of Rs 30,000 will be provided to each patient undergoing treatment and stranded outside Sikkim from the Chief Minister's relief fund.
     
  • Relief for casual workers:  On March 30, the Sikkim government issued directions to all contractors/ employers to pay migrant and casual labourers on the due date without any deductions due to the lockdown.  The state government also provided grants worth Rs 2,000 to the 7,836 registered building and other construction workers in the state.
     
  • Relief for stranded students:  On March 29, the state announced that it will provide Rs 5,000 to each state student stranded outside Sikkim during the nationwide lockdown.

Certain relaxations after 20th April 

On April 14, the nation-wide lockdown was further extended till May 3, 2020.  On April 15, the Ministry of Home Affairs issued guidelines outlining select activities which will be permitted from April 20 onwards.  These activities include health services, agriculture related activities, certain financial sector activities, operation of Anganwadis, MNREGA works, and cargo movement.  Further, subject to certain conditions, commercial and private establishments, industrial establishments, government offices, and construction activities will also be permitted.  The Sikkim government took the following steps in the same line.

  • On April 19, the state government gave directions to all government and PSU offices to work with up to one-third of their actual staff strength from April 20 onwards. 
     
  • On April 19, the state government gave directions and standard operating procedures to be followed at manufacturing establishments, work spaces and public places post April 20.  These include: (i) no overlapping shifts, (ii) staggered lunch breaks, (iii) training on good hygiene practices, (iv) compulsory wearing of face cover, and (v) sanitising workplaces between shifts. 

For more information on the spread of COVID-19 and the central and state government response to the pandemic, please see here.