The Recent Assembly Polls - Implications for Rajya Sabha and Presidential elections

Rohit - May 30, 2011

By Rohit and Jhalak Some Rajya Sabha seats will be contested over the next year. The Presidential elections are also scheduled to be held in 2012. The recent assembly elections has implications for both these elections. The Presidential elections will depend on the strenght in the assemblies, in Lok Sabha and in Rajya Sabha (which could change over the next year). Implications for Rajya Sabha Elections The composition of Rajya Sabha may undergo some changes. A total of 12 Rajya Sabha seats are up for election in 2011. This includes 6 seats from West Bengal, 3 from Gujarat and 1 each from Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu and Goa. Another 65 seats, across 18 states, go for elections in early 2012. The largest chunk of these seats comes from UP(10), followed by Andhra Pradesh(6), Bihar(6) and Maharashtra(6). Since Rajya Sabha members are elected by the elected members of the Legislative Assembly of the State, a change in the composition of the assembly can affect the election outcome. We used the current assembly compositions to work out scenarios for Rajya Sabha in 2011 and 2012. There could be alliances between parties for the Rajya Sabha elections, so we have estimated a range for each grouping (Scenario I and II) for 2012. See Notes [1] and [2].

Parties/ Coalitions	2010	Scenario 2011	Scenario 2012
			I	II
UPA	89	94	95	97
NDA	65	65	67	66
Left	22	19	14	14
BSP	18	18	19	19
SP	5	5	6	6
AIADMK	4	5	5	5
BJD	6	6	5	5
Other parties	18	18	20	19
Independent	6	6	5	5
Nominated	8	9	9	9
Total	241	245	245	245

Implications for the election of the President The President is elected in accordance with the provisions of Article 54 and 55 of the Constitution. The electorate consists of the elected members of Lok Sabha, Rajya Sabha and all Legislative Assemblies. Each MP/ MLA's vote has a pre-determined value based on the population they represent. The election is held in accordance with the system of proportional representation by means of a single transferable vote. The winning candidate must secure at least 50% of the total value of votes polled. (For details, refer to this Election Commission document). There is no change in the Lok Sabha composition (unless there are bye-elections). Position in Legislative Assemblies After the recent round of assembly elections, the all-India MLA count adds up to:

UPA	1613
NDA	1106
Left	205
BSP	246
AIADMK	155
BJD	103
SP	95
Others	597

The above numbers can now be used to estimate the value of votes polled by each coalition. See Note [3]:

Value of votes cast	Scenario - 1	Scenario - 2
UPA	439,437	440,853
NDA	307,737	307,029
Left	51,646	51,646
BSP	77,243	77,243
SP	38,531	38,531
AIADMK	36,392	36,392
BJD	28,799	28,799
Others	119,097	118,389
Total	1,098,882	1,098,882
Min. to be elected	549,442	549,442

The UPA has the highest value of votes polled but the figure is not sufficient to get its candidate elected. Assuming that there are at most three candidates with significant support (UPA, NDA, and Left/Third Front), the winner will be the one who manages to bridge the gap with second preference votes. On this factor, the UPA backed candidate is likely to hold the edge over others. Notes: [1] At present, there are four vacant seats in Rajya Sabha (1 Maharashtra, 1 TN, 1 WB and 1 Nominated). It is assumed that all these seats are filled up in 2011. [2] Three of the 11 nominated members in the current Rajya Sabha have declared their party affiliation as INC. These have been included in the UPA count in the above analysis. For the sake of simplicity, it is assumed that members who get nominated in 2011/ 12 are not aligned to any party/ coalition. [3] The above analysis is based on the assumption that the next set of assembly elections happen after the Presidential election.

States and State Legislatures

Government of Karnataka’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic (Feb 2020–April 14, 2020)

Prachi Kaur - April 15, 2020

As of April 13, 2020, there have been 260 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Karnataka. Of these, 70 have been discharged and 10 have died.[1] In order to contain the spread of the disease, both, the Central and State governments have come up with a series of policy responses. In this blog, we take a look at the key measures taken by the Government of Karnataka in this regard as of April 14, 2020.

Movement restrictions

To contain the spread of COVID-19 in the state, the Government of Karnataka took the following measures to restrict the movement of people in the state:

On March 13, the Directorate of Health and Family Welfare ordered the closure of various establishments such as theatres, pubs, gyms, malls, swimming pools, and educational institutions until March 21. The order also directed all international passenger arrivals to be mandatorily home quarantined for 14 days.[2]
On March 20, the above order was revised to extend the closure of said establishments until April 1. The order also banned all religious gatherings.[3]
Further, on March 23, all bus services to and from the nine districts that had reported COVID-19 positive cases were completely stopped until April 1.[4]
The central government later announced a 21-day country-wide lockdown starting March 25.[5] This was followed by the announcement of a pass system by the Bengaluru Commissioner of Police on March 25 to regulate the movement of people in Bengaluru City.[6]
On April 6, District Collectors were empowered to issue inter-district transport passes.[7]
On April 14, the Prime Minister announced the extension of the lockdown till May 3, 2020.[8] On April 15, the Ministry of Home Affairs issued guidelines on the measures to be taken by governments until May 3. As per these guidelines, to mitigate hardship to the public, select activities will be permitted from April 20 onwards. These include health services, agriculture and related activities, financial sector, MNREGA works, cargo movement etc. In addition, subject to conditions, commercial and private establishments, industrial establishments, government offices, construction activities etc, will also be permitted.[9]

Essential Goods and Services

The pass system in Bengaluru City facilitated the movement of personnel involved in manufacturing and providing essential goods and services.
On April 2, the government announced that it will distribute the excess stock of milk to poor people for free.[10]
On April 6, the government declared that rations for the month of April will be supplied to people without the usual OTP authentication process.[11]

Health Measures

Karnataka Epidemic Disease COVID-19 Regulations 2020

On March 11, 2020, the government released the Karnataka Epidemic Disease COVID-19 Regulations 2020 to prevent the spread of COVID19 in the state. These regulations specify the protocol for hospitals to follow for screening and treating COVID-19 patients. These regulations are valid for one year.[12]

Preventive measures

On February 5, 2020, the Department of Health & Family Welfare and AYUSH services issued the Terms of Reference for district-level teams to take preventive measures against the spread of COVID-19.[13] The terms relate to various administrative and complementary aspects related to COVID19 management. These include activities of various teams, human resource management, training and awareness generation etc.

Following this, on April 6, 2020, the Department also issued instructions to all districts to prepare a District Level Crisis Management Plan to prevent large outbreaks of COVID-19.[14]

Setting up of fever clinics, isolation centres etc

On March 4, the state government issued guidelines to the district administration to ensure hospitals maintain a 10-bed isolation ward for COVID-19 patients.[15]

On March 31, the government issued orders to establish fever clinics as the first points of contact for COVID-19 suspect patients. These fever clinics would have COVID-19 Rapid Response team of one doctor, two nurses and a health care worker.[16]

Personnel measures

On March 30, the Department of Health & Family Welfare invited applications from doctors for immediate appointment (on contract basis) in Urban Primary Health Centres in Bengaluru City.[17] Subsequently, on April 2, the state government issued orders to extend the tenure of retiring medical professionals from March 31, 2020 to June 30, 2020.[18]

On March 26, all Registered Medical Practitioners were permitted to provide telemedicine services during the lockdown period. Telemedicine services will be available for minor, non-COVID-19 ailments, and existing patients only.[19]

For more information on the spread of COVID-19 and the central and state government response to the pandemic, please see here.

[1] Novel Coronavirus (COVID19) Media Bulletin, Karnataka, Department of Health and Family Welfare, last accessed on April 15, 2020, https://karunadu.karnataka.gov.in/hfw/kannada/nCovDocs/14-04-2020(English).pdf

[2] GOK order No. DD/SSU/COVID-19/17/19-20, Directorate of Health and Family Welfare, Government of Karnataka, March 13, 2020,

https://karunadu.karnataka.gov.in/hfw/kannada/nCovDocs/Notification(Covid-19)-Dir-HFWS.pdf

[3] Revised GOK order No. DD/SSU/COVID-19/17/19-20, Directorate of Health and Family Welfare, Government of Karnataka, March 20, 2020 https://karunadu.karnataka.gov.in/hfw/kannada/nCovDocs/Revised-Order-COVID-19(20-03-2020).pdf

[4] Order No. STA-6/SCP/PR-20/2019-20, Directorate of Transport, Government of Karnataka, March 23, 2020, https://transport.karnataka.gov.in/storage/pdf-files/restrictions.pdf

[5] Order No. 1-29/2020-PP, National Disaster Management Authority, March 24, 2020, https://mha.gov.in/sites/default/files/ndma%20order%20copy.pdf.

[6] Order No.02 / CP-BLR/Covid-19/2020, Commissioner of Police, Bengaluru City, March 25, 2020, https://karnataka.gov.in/storage/pdf-files/covid_rules/Covid_pass.pdf

[7] Order of Chief Secretary, Government of Karnataka, April 6, 2020, https://ksuwssb.karnataka.gov.in/frontend/opt1/images/covid/Orders/IMG-20200406-WA0005.jpg

[8] “PM addresses the nation for 4th time in 4 Weeks in India’s fight against COVID-19” Press Release, Prime Minister’s office, April 14, 2020, https://pib.gov.in/PressReleseDetail.aspx?PRID=1614255

[9] No.40-3/2020-DM-I(A), Ministry of Home Affairs, April 15, 2020, https://www.mha.gov.in/sites/default/files/MHA%20order%20dt%2015.04.2020%2C%20with%20Revised%20Consolidated%20Guidelines_compressed%20%283%29.pdf

[10] Proceedings, Government of Karnataka, April 2, 2020, ,https://ksuwssb.karnataka.gov.in/frontend/opt1/images/covid/Orders/GO%20Free%20Milk%20%20(1).pdf

[11] RD 158 TNR 2020, Government of Karnataka, April 6, 2020, https://ksuwssb.karnataka.gov.in/frontend/opt1/images/covid/Orders/IMG-20200406-WA0015.jpg

[12]Karnataka Epidemic Disease COVID-19 Regulations 2020, Government of Karnataka, March 11, 2020, https://karunadu.karnataka.gov.in/hfw/kannada/nCovDocs/Exercise-of-Powers-COVID-10(11-03-2020).pdf

[13] No. JRO(1A)/148/2019-20, Department of Health & Family Welfare and AYUSH Services Government of Karnataka, February 5, 2020, https://ksuwssb.karnataka.gov.in/frontend/opt1/images/covid/Circulars/%E0%B2%B8%E0%B3%81%E0%B2%A4%E0%B3%8D%E0%B2%A4%E0%B3%8B%E0%B2%B2%E0%B3%86%20%E0%B3%A8%E0%B3%AA.pdf

[14]No. HFW 87 ACS 2020 Department of Health & Family Welfare and Medical Education, April 6, 2020, https://karunadu.karnataka.gov.in/hfw/kannada/nCovDocs/Circular-Preparation%20of%20District%20Level%20Crisis%20Management%20Plan%20for%20COVID-19(06-04-2020).pdf

[15]Circular No. HFW 47 CGM 2020 (P), Government of Karnataka, March 3, 2020, https://karunadu.karnataka.gov.in/hfw/kannada/nCovDocs/Guidelines-Isolation-Ward.pdf

[16]No. HFW 73 ACS 2020, Government of Karnataka, March 31, 2020, https://karunadu.karnataka.gov.in/hfw/kannada/nCovDocs/Circular-Establishment%20of%20Fever%20Clinic%20and%20Movement%20Protocol%20for%20Suspect%20Cases%20of%20COVID-19(31-03-2020).pdf

[17]No. HFW 71 ACS 2020, Department of Health & Family Welfare and Medical Education, March 30, 2020, https://karunadu.karnataka.gov.in/hfw/kannada/nCovDocs/Order%20-%20Immidiate%20Appointment%20of%20Contract%20Doctors%20in%20BBMP%20(30-03-2020).pdf

[18] No. 40 HSH 2020 (B), Government of Karnataka, April 2, 2020, https://ksuwssb.karnataka.gov.in/frontend/opt1/images/covid/Circulars/Extension%20of%20service%20reg_001.pdf

[19]No. HFW 54 CGM 2020, Government of Karnataka, March 26, 2020, https://karunadu.karnataka.gov.in/hfw/kannada/nCovDocs/Order-Registered%20Medical%20Practitioners%20(26-03-2020).pdf