The row over Bt Brinjal, a genetically modified version of the plant, provoked the government into imposing a moratorium on the commercial cultivation of the plant in India. The debate has revolved around issues of economic efficacy, human health, consumer choice and farmers’ rights. Jairam Ramesh, the Minister of State for Environment and Forests, made public his views on the subject, a gist of which is given below:
In order to understand the process followed by GEAC before giving the green signal to Bt Brinjal, we have made a timeline in which the plant was approved and the bodies involved in the process.
2000-2005 | Scientific tests carried out by Mahyco on Bt Brinjal |
2006 | Mahyco submits bio-safety data to GEAC (regulatory body under the Ministry of Environment and Forests). Seeks permission for large scale trials. |
Supreme Court stops ongoing field trials of GM crops due to a PIL filed by civil society representatives. | |
2007 | The expert committee 1 set up by GEAC, submits its report. Recommends seven more studies on bio-safety be repeated for reconfirmation of data generated during confined multi-location trials but approves large scale trials. |
Supreme Court lifts ban on GM crop field trials subject to conditions such as isolation distance etc. | |
As per GEAC direction, Indian Institute of Vegetable Research (IIVR) takes up the responsibility of large scale trails of Mahyco's Bt Brinjal trials at 10 research institutions across the country in 2007 and 11 in 2008. | |
2009 | Jan: IIVR submits the results of the large scale trails. Due to concerns raised by several stakeholders, GEAC constitutes another expert committee to look into adequacy of biosafety data generated as well as the concerns raised by all stakeholders. |
Oct 8: Expert-committee 2 submits its report. States benefits of Bt Brinjal far outweigh the perceived and projected risks. | |
Oct 14: GEAC approves the environmental release of Bt Brinjal containing the event EE1 (with one dissent note from P.M. Bhargava). | |
Oct 15: Jairam Ramesh announces a nationwide consultation in January and February of 2010 pending a final decision on this issue. | |
2010 | Jan 13 to Feb 6: Public meetings were organized on the Bt Brinjal issue. The summary of the consultations is available on the Ministry’s website. |
Many states announce ban on commercial cultivation of Bt Brinjal including Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh and Karnataka. | |
Feb 9: Jairam Ramesh decides to halt the commercialization of Bt Brinjal. |
By Rohit and Jhalak Some Rajya Sabha seats will be contested over the next year. The Presidential elections are also scheduled to be held in 2012. The recent assembly elections has implications for both these elections. The Presidential elections will depend on the strenght in the assemblies, in Lok Sabha and in Rajya Sabha (which could change over the next year). Implications for Rajya Sabha Elections The composition of Rajya Sabha may undergo some changes. A total of 12 Rajya Sabha seats are up for election in 2011. This includes 6 seats from West Bengal, 3 from Gujarat and 1 each from Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu and Goa. Another 65 seats, across 18 states, go for elections in early 2012. The largest chunk of these seats comes from UP(10), followed by Andhra Pradesh(6), Bihar(6) and Maharashtra(6). Since Rajya Sabha members are elected by the elected members of the Legislative Assembly of the State, a change in the composition of the assembly can affect the election outcome. We used the current assembly compositions to work out scenarios for Rajya Sabha in 2011 and 2012. There could be alliances between parties for the Rajya Sabha elections, so we have estimated a range for each grouping (Scenario I and II) for 2012. See Notes [1] and [2].
Parties/ Coalitions | 2010 | Scenario 2011 | Scenario 2012 | |
I | II | |||
UPA | 89 | 94 | 95 | 97 |
NDA | 65 | 65 | 67 | 66 |
Left | 22 | 19 | 14 | 14 |
BSP | 18 | 18 | 19 | 19 |
SP | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 |
AIADMK | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
BJD | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 |
Other parties | 18 | 18 | 20 | 19 |
Independent | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 |
Nominated | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
Total | 241 | 245 | 245 | 245 |
Implications for the election of the President The President is elected in accordance with the provisions of Article 54 and 55 of the Constitution. The electorate consists of the elected members of Lok Sabha, Rajya Sabha and all Legislative Assemblies. Each MP/ MLA's vote has a pre-determined value based on the population they represent. The election is held in accordance with the system of proportional representation by means of a single transferable vote. The winning candidate must secure at least 50% of the total value of votes polled. (For details, refer to this Election Commission document). There is no change in the Lok Sabha composition (unless there are bye-elections). Position in Legislative Assemblies After the recent round of assembly elections, the all-India MLA count adds up to:
UPA | 1613 |
NDA | 1106 |
Left | 205 |
BSP | 246 |
AIADMK | 155 |
BJD | 103 |
SP | 95 |
Others | 597 |
The above numbers can now be used to estimate the value of votes polled by each coalition. See Note [3]:
Value of votes cast | Scenario - 1 | Scenario - 2 |
UPA | 439,437 | 440,853 |
NDA | 307,737 | 307,029 |
Left | 51,646 | 51,646 |
BSP | 77,243 | 77,243 |
SP | 38,531 | 38,531 |
AIADMK | 36,392 | 36,392 |
BJD | 28,799 | 28,799 |
Others | 119,097 | 118,389 |
Total | 1,098,882 | 1,098,882 |
Min. to be elected | 549,442 | 549,442 |
The UPA has the highest value of votes polled but the figure is not sufficient to get its candidate elected. Assuming that there are at most three candidates with significant support (UPA, NDA, and Left/Third Front), the winner will be the one who manages to bridge the gap with second preference votes. On this factor, the UPA backed candidate is likely to hold the edge over others. Notes: [1] At present, there are four vacant seats in Rajya Sabha (1 Maharashtra, 1 TN, 1 WB and 1 Nominated). It is assumed that all these seats are filled up in 2011. [2] Three of the 11 nominated members in the current Rajya Sabha have declared their party affiliation as INC. These have been included in the UPA count in the above analysis. For the sake of simplicity, it is assumed that members who get nominated in 2011/ 12 are not aligned to any party/ coalition. [3] The above analysis is based on the assumption that the next set of assembly elections happen after the Presidential election.