The Finance Minister of Madhya Pradesh, Mr. Jagdish Devda, presented the Budget for the state for the financial year 2022-23 on March 9, 2022.

 

Budget Highlights

  • The Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP) of the state for 2022-23 (at current prices) is projected to be Rs 11,51,049 crore.  This is a growth of 11.1% over the revised estimate of GSDP for 2021-22 (Rs 10,36,048 crore).  In 2021-22, GSDP is estimated to grow at 12.9% over the previous year (at current prices).
  • Expenditure (excluding debt repayment) in 2022-23 is estimated to be Rs 2,47,715 crore, a 14% increase over the revised estimates of 2021-22 (Rs 2,17,813 crore).   In addition, debt of Rs 24,114 crore will be repaid by the state in 2022-23.  In 2021-22, expenditure (excluding debt repayment) is estimated to be 0.3% higher than the budget estimate.
  • Receipts (excluding borrowings) for 2022-23 are estimated to be Rs 1,95,204 crore, an increase of 12% over the revised estimates of 2021-22 (Rs 1,74,526 crore).  In 2021-22, receipts (excluding borrowings) are estimated to be 5% higher than the budget estimate (Rs 1,66,185 crore).  
  • Fiscal deficit for 2022-23 is targeted at Rs 52,511 crore (4.56% of GSDP).   In 2021-22, as per the revised estimates, fiscal deficit is expected to be 4.18% of GSDP, lower than the budget estimate of 4.50% of GSDP.
  • Revenue deficit for 2022-23 is estimated to be Rs 3,736 crore, which is 0.32% of the GSDP.  In 2021-22, the state is estimated to observe a revenue deficit of 0.55% of GSDP, as compared to a revenue deficit of 0.73% of GSDP estimated at the budget stage.

Policy Highlights

  • Welfare: For government servants, the state will increase the dearness allowance from 20% to 31%. 
  • Medical education: MBBS seats in the state will be increased from the existing 2,350 to 3,250 seats.  Further, 22 new medical colleges will be functional in the state. 
  • Electric Mobility: The state government has announced that it will install a total of 217 EV charging stations across Bhopal, Gwalior, Jabalpur, and Indore.   

Madhya Pradesh’s Economy

  • GSDP:  Madhya Pradesh’s GSDP (at constant prices) saw a negative growth of 3.4% in 2020-21.  In comparison, national GDP registered a negative growth of 6.6% in 2020-21.  In 2020-21, the services sector of Madhya Pradesh witnessed a contraction of 8.9% whereas the manufacturing sector contracted by 3.9%. 
  • Sectors:  In 2020-21, at current prices, agriculture, manufacturing, and services sectors contributed to 47%, 19%, and 34% of the economy, respectively.
  • Per capita GSDP:  The per capita GSDP of Madhya Pradesh in 2020-21 (at current prices) was Rs 1,09,181; 3.4% lower than the corresponding figure in 2019-20 (Rs 1,13,079).  In comparison, the per capita GDP at the national level was Rs 1,46,087 (at current prices). 

Figure  1 : Growth in GSDP and sectors in Madhya Pradesh at constant (2011-12) prices 

 image

Note: These numbers are as per constant (2011-12) prices which implies that the growth rate is adjusted for inflation.
Sources: Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation; PRS.

 Budget Estimates for 2022-23

  • Expenditure (excluding debt repayment) in 2022-23 is targeted at Rs 2,47,715 crore.  This is an increase of 14% over the revised estimate of 2021-22 (Rs 2,17,813 crore).   This expenditure is proposed to be met through receipts (excluding borrowings) of Rs 1,95,204 crore and net borrowings of Rs 51,829 crore.  Receipts (excluding borrowings) for 2022-23 are expected to register an increase of 12% over the revised estimate of 2021-22.  In 2021-22, receipts are estimated to be 5% higher than the budget estimates.
  • In 2022-23, the state is estimated to observe a revenue deficit of Rs 3,736 crore, which is 0.32% of its GSDP.  In comparison, in 2021-22, the state is expected to observe a revenue deficit of Rs 5,701 crore (0.55% of GSDP).  
  • Fiscal deficit in 2022-23 is estimated to be 4.56% of GSDP which is higher than the limit of 4% of GSDP permitted by the central government as per the Union Budget 2022-23 (of which, 0.5% of GSDP will be made available upon undertaking power sector reforms).  In 2021-22, the state has estimated a fiscal deficit of 4.18% of GSDP, lower than the limit of 4.5% of GSDP permitted by the central government (of which, 0.5% of GSDP becomes available upon undertaking power sector reforms).  

Table  1 : Budget 2022-23 - Key figures (in Rs crore)

Items

2020-21 Actuals

2021-22 Budgeted

2021-22 Revised

% change from BE 2021-22 to RE 2021-22

2022-23 Budgeted

% change from RE 2021-22 to BE 2022-23

Total Expenditure

2,09,076

2,34,918

2,32,642

-1%

2,71,830

17%

(-) Repayment of debt

12,757

17,794

14,829

-17%

24,114

63%

Net Expenditure (E)

1,96,319

2,17,123

2,17,813

0%

2,47,715

14%

Total Receipts

2,11,620

2,33,443

2,29,437

-2%

2,71,148

18%

(-) Borrowings

65,171

67,258

54,911

-18%

75,943

38%

Net Receipts (R)

1,46,450

1,66,185

1,74,526

5%

1,95,204

12%

Fiscal Deficit (E-R)

49,870

50,938

43,287

-15%

52,511

21%

as % of GSDP

5.44%

4.50%

4.18%

4.56%

Revenue Balance*

-18,356

-8,293

-5,701

-31%

-3,736

-34%

as % of GSDP

-2.00%

-0.73%

-0.55%

-0.32%

Primary Deficit

33,952

29,995

23,246

-23%

30,345

31%

as % of GSDP

3.70%

2.65%

2.24%

2.64%

Note: *Negative sign indicates a deficit, positive sign indicates a surplus.  BE is Budget Estimates; RE is Revised Estimates.

Sources: Madhya Pradesh Budget Documents 2022-23; Madhya Pradesh Economic Survey 2021-22; PRS.

Expenditure in 2022-23

  • Revenue expenditure in 2022-23 is estimated to be Rs 1,98,916 crore, which is an increase of 12% over the revised estimate of 2021-22 (Rs 1,77,398 crore).  This expenditure includes the payment of salaries, pensions, interest, and subsidies.     In 2021-22, as per the revised estimates, revenue expenditure is estimated to be 3% higher than the budget estimate.
  • Capital outlay in 2022-23 is estimated to be Rs 45,686 crore, which is an increase of 23% over the revised estimate of 2021-22 (Rs 37,089 crore).  Capital outlay comprises expenditure towards creation of assets.  This includes expenditure on building schools, hospitals, and roads and bridges.     Note that the state estimates Rs 6,500 crore on account of the long-term loan for capital outlay from the central government.   This is an increase of 456% from the amount received in 2021-22 (Rs 1,167 crore).  In 2021-22, capital outlay by the state is estimated to be 9% lower than the budget estimate.

Fiscal space for capital outlay

In 2022-23, the estimated fiscal deficit of Madhya Pradesh is 4.56% of GSDP.  It is higher than the limit of 4% of GSDP permitted by the central government in 2022-23 as per the Union Budget. In 2022-23, revenue expenditure is estimated to be 80% of the total expenditure (excluding debt repayment).     Further, interest payments have increased from Rs 15,918 crore in 2020-21 to Rs 22,166 crore in 2022-23.     With an increase in the fiscal deficit, this may go up even further.  Additionally, with the state being in revenue deficit, the amount received from borrowings may be utilised for revenue expenditure. 

 

Table  2 : Expenditure Budget 2022-23 (in Rs crore)

Items

2020-21 Actuals

2021-22 Budgeted

2021-22 Revised

% change from BE 2021-22 to RE 2021-22

2022-23 Budgeted

% change from RE 2021-22 to BE 2022-23

Revenue Expenditure

 1,64,733 

1,72,971

 1,77,398 

3%

 1,98,916 

12%

Capital Outlay

 30,356 

40,667

 37,089 

-9%

 45,686 

23%

Loans given by the state

 1,230 

 2,985 

 2,826 

-5%

 3,114 

10%

Net Expenditure

 1,96,319 

 2,17,123 

 2,17,813 

0.3%

 2,47,715 

14%

Note: The Net Expenditure includes Rs 500 crore allocation from the contingency fund in 2021-22 BE and RE. 

Sources: Madhya Pradesh Budget Documents 2022-23; PRS.

Committed expenditure: Committed expenditure of a state typically includes expenditure on payment of salaries, pensions, and interest.  Allocation of a large portion of the budget towards committed expenditure items limits the state’s flexibility to decide on other expenditure priorities such as developmental schemes and capital outlay.  In 2022-23, Madhya Pradesh is estimated to spend Rs 95,627 crore on committed expenditure items, which is 49% of its revenue receipts.   This comprises spending on salaries (28% of revenue receipts), pension (10%), and interest payments (11%).  Committed expenditure in 2022-23 is estimated to increase by 16% over the revised estimate of 2021-22.  Spending on pension is estimated to increase by 18% and spending on salaries and interest is estimated to increase by 19% and 11%, respectively.

Table  3 : Committed Expenditure in 2022-23 (in Rs crore)

Committed Expenditure

2020-21 Actuals

2021-22 Budgeted

2021-22 Revised

% change from BE 2021-22 to RE 2021-22

2022-23 Budgeted

% change from RE 2021-22 to BE 2022-23

Salaries

 39,366 

 49,717 

 45,650 

-8%

 54,101 

19%

Pension

 14,671 

 16,913 

 16,451 

-3%

 19,360 

18%

Interest

 15,918 

 20,943 

 20,041 

-4%

 22,166 

11%

Committed Expenditure

 69,955 

 87,573 

 82,142 

-6%

 95,627 

16%

Sources: Madhya Pradesh Budget Documents 2022-23; PRS.

Sector-wise expenditure: The sectors listed below account for 63% of the total expenditure on sectors by the state in 2022-23.  A comparison of Madhya Pradesh’s expenditure on the key sectors with that by other states is shown in Annexure 1.

Table  4 : Sector-wise expenditure under Madhya Pradesh Budget 2022-23 (in Rs crore)

Sector

2020-21

Actuals

2021-22

Budgeted

2021-22 Revised

2022-23 Budgeted

% change from RE 2021-22 to BE 2022-23

Budget provisions

Education, Sports, Arts, and Culture

      30,109 

      36,344 

      31,614 

               39,326 

24%

Rs 3,908 crore has been allocated towards Samagra Shiksha Abhiyan for school education.

Rs 1,157 crore has been allocated towards CM RISE scheme

Energy

      15,469 

      16,745 

      17,082 

               21,816 

28%

Rs 9,414 crore has been allocated towards assistance for Electricity Boards. 

Agriculture and allied activities

      13,324 

      16,142 

      17,128 

               16,784 

-2%

Rs 2,000 crore has been allocated towards PM-Fasal Bima Yojana

Rural Development

      14,132 

      12,305 

      15,078 

               14,313 

-5%

Rs 3,500 crore has been allocated towards MGNREGS

Health and Family Welfare

        9,687 

      11,620 

      12,012 

               13,903 

16%

Rs 1,180 crore has been allocated towards district hospitals

Rs 1,033 crore has been allocated towards primary health centres

Social Welfare and Nutrition

      13,041 

      10,892 

      10,970 

               11,730 

7%

Rs 1,144 crore has been allocated towards Indira Gandhi National Old age pension

Housing

        5,996 

        3,180 

        5,173 

               10,691 

107%

Rs 1,500 crore has been allocated for housing for all yojana

Police

        6,900 

        8,062 

        7,876 

                 8,813 

12%

Rs 4,995 crore has been allocated towards district police

Water Supply and Sanitation

        5,034 

        8,412 

        7,631 

                 8,657 

13%

Rs 6,300 crore has been allocated towards Jal Jeevan Mission

Irrigation and Flood Control

      11,015 

        9,860 

      11,234 

                 8,438 

-25%

Rs 6,821 crore has been allocated towards capital outlay on Irrigation and flood control

% of total expenditure on all sectors

64%

63%

63%

63%

0%

 

Sources: Madhya Pradesh Budget Documents 2022-23; PRS.

 Receipts in 2022-23

  • Total revenue receipts for 2022-23 are estimated to be Rs 1,95,180 crore, an increase of 14% over the revised estimate of 2021-22.  Of this, Rs 86,478 crore (44%) will be raised by the state through its own resources (tax and non-tax revenue), and Rs 1,08,702 crore (56%) will come from the centre.  Resources from the centre will be in the form of state’s share in central taxes (33% of revenue receipts) and grants (23% of revenue receipts).
  • Devolution:  In 2022-23, the state estimates to receive Rs 64,107 crore in the form of share in central taxes, an increase of 10% over the revised estimates of 2021-22.
  • State’s own tax revenue:  In 2022-23, total own tax revenue of the state is estimated to be Rs 72,860 crore, an increase of 13% over the revised estimate of 2021-22.  State’s own tax revenue as a percentage of GSDP is estimated to rise from 5.9% of GSDP in 2020-21 (as per actuals) to 6.3% of GSDP in 2022-23 (as per budget estimate).  In 2021-22, own tax as percentage of GSDP has been revised to 6.2% of GSDP as compared to the budget estimate of 5.7% of GSDP.
  • State’s non-tax revenue: In 2022-23, the state is estimated to earn Rs 13,618 crore in the form of state’s own non-tax revenue, a 12% increase over the revised estimates of 2021-22.  In 2021-22, state’s own non-tax revenue is estimated to register an increase of 3% over the budget estimates.

Table  5 : Break-up of the state government’s receipts (in Rs crore)

Items

2020-21 Actuals

2021-22 Budgeted

2021-22 Revised

% change from BE 2021-22 to RE 2021-22

2022-23 Budgeted

% change from RE 2021-22 to BE 2022-23

State's Own Tax

 54,484 

 64,914 

 64,297 

-1%

 72,860 

13%

State's Own Non-Tax

 9,902 

 11,742 

 12,126 

3%

 13,618 

12%

Share in Central Taxes

 46,889 

 52,247 

 58,378 

12%

 64,107 

10%

Grants from Centre

 35,102 

 35,775 

 36,896 

3%

 44,595 

21%

Revenue Receipts

1,46,377

1,64,677

1,71,697

4%

1,95,180

14%

Non-debt Capital Receipts

 73 

 1,508 

 2,829 

88%

 24 

-99%

Net Receipts

 1,46,450 

 1,66,185 

 1,74,526 

5%

 1,95,204 

12%

Note: BE is Budget Estimates; RE is Revised Estimates.  

Sources: Madhya Pradesh Budget Documents 2022-23; PRS.

  • In 2022-23, SGST is estimated to be the largest source of own tax revenue (34%).  SGST revenue in 2022-23 is estimated at Rs 25,000 crore, which is a 16% increase over the revised estimates of 2021-22.  In 2021-22 as per revised estimates, SGST revenue is estimated to be 6% lower than the budget estimate.  
  • In 2022-23, revenue from Sales Tax/VAT is expected to increase by 5% over revised estimates of 2021-22.  Sales Tax/VAT is the second largest source of own tax revenue after SGST in 2022-23. 
  • State excise is estimated to increase by 28% in 2022-23 over the 2021-22 revised estimates.   

GST Compensation ends in June 2022

When the GST was introduced, the central government guaranteed states a 14% compounded annual growth in their GST revenue for a period of five years.     Any shortfall in a state’s GST revenue from this level is covered by the Centre by providing compensation grants to the state.  This guarantee ends in June 2022.  During 2018-22, Madhya Pradesh has relied on GST compensation grants to achieve the guaranteed SGST revenue level.  In 2021-22, Madhya Pradesh is estimated to receive Rs 11,121 crore in the form of GST compensation grants, which is about 17% of its own tax revenue.     Hence, beyond June 2022, Madhya Pradesh might see a decline in the level of revenue receipts.

Table  6 : Major sources of state’s own-tax revenue (in Rs crore)

Head

2020-21 Actuals

2021-22 Budgeted

2021-22 Revised

% change from BE 2021-22 to RE 2021-22

2022-23 Budgeted

% change from RE 2021-22 to BE 2022-23

State GST

 17,257 

 23,000 

 21,600 

-6%

 25,000 

16%

Sales Tax/ VAT

 13,296 

 14,240 

 16,154 

13%

 16,968 

5%

State Excise

 9,526 

 12,109 

 10,340 

-15%

 13,255 

28%

Stamps Duty and Registration Fees

 6,817 

 6,495 

 7,400 

14%

 8,200 

11%

Taxes on Vehicles

 2,749 

 3,600 

 3,200 

-11%

 3,700 

16%

Land Revenue

 504 

 850 

 767 

-10%

 1,241 

62%

Taxes and Duties on Electricity

 2,608 

 3,100 

 3,750 

21%

 3,364 

-10%

GST Compensation Grants

 5,293 

 5,322 

 4,110 

-23%

 5,000 

22%

GST Compensation Loans

 4,542 

 7,011 

Sources: Madhya Pradesh Budget Documents 2022-23; PRS.

Deficits and Debt Targets for 2022-23

The Madhya Pradesh Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management (FRBM) Act, 2005 provides annual targets to progressively reduce the outstanding liabilities, revenue deficit, and fiscal deficit of the state government.

Revenue Balance:  It is the difference of revenue expenditure and revenue receipts.  A revenue deficit implies that the government needs to borrow to finance its expenses which do not increase its assets or reduces its liabilities.  In 2022-23, Madhya Pradesh is estimated to observe a revenue deficit of Rs 3,736 crore, which is 0.32% of the GSDP.  According to revised estimates, Madhya Pradesh is expected to have a revenue deficit of Rs 5,701 crore (0.55% GSDP) in 2021-22.  As per the medium term fiscal plan presented along with the budget, the state is expected to have a revenue surplus in the next three financial years.   

Fiscal deficit:  It is the excess of total expenditure over total receipts.  This gap is filled by borrowings by the government and leads to an increase in total liabilities of the state government.  In 2022-23, the fiscal deficit is estimated to be Rs 52,524 crore (4.56% of GSDP).  It is higher than the limit of 4% of GSDP permitted by the central government in 2022-23 as per the Union Budget (of which, 0.5% of GSDP will be made available upon undertaking power sector reforms).  As per the revised estimates, in 2021-22, the fiscal deficit of the state is expected to be 4.18% of GSDP, which is lower than the budget estimate of 4.50% of GSDP.  It is within the 4.5% limit permitted by the central government for 2021-22 (of which, 0.5% of GSDP becomes available upon undertaking power sector reforms).  As per the FRBM statement presented along with the budget, the state’s fiscal deficit is expected to come down to 3% of GSDP in 2025-26.

Outstanding liabilities:   Outstanding liabilities is the accumulation of total borrowings at the end of a financial year, it also includes any liabilities on public account.  Outstanding liabilities are set to rise from 24.33% of GSDP in 2019-20 to 33.31% of GSDP in 2022-23.  

Figure  2 : Revenue and Fiscal Balance (% of GSDP) 

image

Note: RE: Revised Estimates; BE: Budget Estimates.  A positive figure means a surplus, a negative figure means a deficit.  *Figures for 2023-24, 2024-25, and 2025-26 are projections.
Sources: Madhya Pradesh Budget Documents 2022-23; PRS.  

Figure  3 : Outstanding Liabilities (% of GSDP)

image

Note: RE: Revised Estimates; BE: Budget Estimates.
Sources: Madhya Pradesh Budget Documents 2022-23; PRS.  

 

Outstanding Government Guarantees: Outstanding liabilities of states do not include a few other liabilities that are contingent in nature, which states may have to honour in certain cases.  State governments guarantee the borrowings of State Public Sector Enterprises (SPSEs) from financial institutions.  As of December 31, 2021, the total outstanding guarantees are Rs 34,992 crore.  Of this, Rs 27,040 crore is payable to food, civil supplies, and consumer protection department. 

Annexure 1:  Comparison of states’ expenditure on key sectors

The graphs below compare Madhya Pradesh’s expenditure on six key sectors as a proportion of its total expenditure on all sectors.  The average for a sector indicates the average expenditure in that sector by 30 states (including Madhya Pradesh) as per their budget estimates of 2021-22. [1]

  • Education:  Madhya Pradesh has allocated 16.1% of its total expenditure for education in 2022-23.  This is higher than the average allocation (15.2%) for education by all states (as per 2021-22 Budget Estimates).
  • Health:  Madhya Pradesh has allocated 5.7% of its total expenditure on health, which is lower than the average allocation for health by states (6%).
  • Agriculture:  The state has allocated 6.9% of its total expenditure towards agriculture and allied activities.  This is higher than the average allocation for agriculture by states (6.2%).
  • Rural development:  Madhya Pradesh has allocated 5.9% of its expenditure on rural development.  This is marginally higher than the average allocation for rural development by states (5.7%).
  • Roads and bridges:  Madhya Pradesh has allocated 2.9% of its total expenditure on roads and bridges, which is significantly lower than the average allocation by states (4.7%).
  • Energy:  Madhya Pradesh has allocated 8.9% of its total expenditure on energy, which is significantly higher than the average expenditure on energy by states (4.4%).

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Note: BE: Budget Estimates; RE: Revised Estimates; 2020-21, 2021-22 (BE), 2021-22 (RE), and 2022-23 (BE) figures are for Madhya Pradesh.
Sources: Madhya Pradesh Budget Documents 2022-23; various state budgets; PRS.

Annexure 2:  Comparison of 2020-21 Budget Estimates and Actuals

The following tables compare the actuals of 2020-21 with budget estimates for that year.

Table  7 : Overview of Receipts and Expenditure (in Rs crore)

Particular

2020-21 BE

2020-21 Actuals

% change from BE to Actuals

Net Receipts (1+2)

1,36,962

1,46,435

7%

1. Revenue Receipts (a+b+c+d)

1,36,921

1,46,377

7%

a. Own Tax Revenue

 49,126 

54,484

11%

b. Own Non-Tax Revenue

 8,860 

9,902

12%

c. Share in central taxes

 46,025 

46,889

2%

d. Grants-in-aid from the Centre

 32,910 

35,102

7%

        Of which GST compensation grants

 4,728 

5,293

12%

2. Non-Debt Capital Receipts

41

58

42%

3. Borrowings

 63,448 

65,171

3%

         Of which GST compensation loan

-

4,542

Net Expenditure (4+5+6)

1,83,997

1,96,319

7%

4. Revenue Expenditure

 1,54,110 

1,64,733

                                    7%

5. Capital Outlay

 28,350 

30,356

7%

6. Loans and Advances

 1,536 

1,230

-20%

7. Debt Repayment

 16,346 

12,757

-22%

Revenue Balance

17,189

-18,356

-207%

Revenue Balance (as % of GSDP)

1.81%

-2.0%

Fiscal Deficit

47,035

49,884

6%

Fiscal Deficit (as % of GSDP)

4.96%

5.4%

Note: A negative revenue balance indicates a deficit.  BE: Budget Estimates.
Sources: Madhya Pradesh Budget Documents of various years; PRS.

Table  8 : Key Components of State's Own Tax Revenue (in Rs crore)

Sector

2020-21 BE

2020-21 Actuals

% change from BE to Actuals

Sales Tax/VAT

11,208

 9,526 

-15%

Taxes and Duties on Electricity

3,000

 2,608 

-13%

Land Revenue

500

 504 

1%

SGST

16,111

 17,257 

7%

Taxes on Vehicles

2,500

 2,749 

10%

Stamps Duty and Registration Fees

5,000

 6,817 

36%

State Excise Duty

9,000

 13,296 

48%

Note: BE: Budget Estimates.
Sources: Madhya Pradesh Budget Documents of various years; PRS.

Table  9 : Allocation towards Key Sectors (in Rs crore)

Sector

2020-21 BE

2020-21 Actuals

% change from BE to Actuals

Education, Sports, Arts, and Culture

33,408

30,109

-10%

Welfare of SC, ST, OBC, and Minorities

5,192

4,740

-9%

Police

7,512

6,900

-8%

Health and Family Welfare

10,164

9,687

-5%

Rural Development

13,904

14,132

2%

Transport

6,385

6,564

3%

of which Roads and Bridges

6,303

6,491

3%

Water Supply and Sanitation

4,688

5,034

7%

Urban Development

5,553

6,796

22%

Social Welfare and Nutrition

10,612

13,041

23%

Agriculture and allied activities

10,326

13,324

29%

Irrigation and Flood Control

8,144

11,015

35%

Energy

10,095

15,469

53%

Housing

2,653

5,996

126%

Note: BE: Budget Estimates.
Sources: Madhya Pradesh Budget Documents of various years; PRS.

[1]  The 30 states include the Union Territory of Delhi and Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir.

 

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