In April 2020, the International Labour Organisation (ILO) estimated that nearly 2.5 crore jobs could be lost worldwide due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. Further, it observed that more than 40 crore informal workers in India may get pushed into deeper poverty due to the pandemic. In this blog post, we discuss the effect of COVID-19 on unemployment in urban areas as per the quarterly Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) report released last week, and highlight some of the measures taken by the central government with regard to unemployment.
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Methodology for estimating unemployment in PLFS reports The National Statistics Office (NSO) released its latest quarterly PLFS report for the October-December 2020 quarter. The PLFS reports give estimates of labour force indicators including Labour Force Participation Rate (LFPR), Unemployment Rate, and distribution of workers across industries. The reports are released on a quarterly as well as annual basis. The quarterly reports cover only urban areas whereas the annual report covers both urban and rural areas. The latest annual report is available for the July 2019-June 2020 period. The quarterly PLFS reports provide estimates based on the Current Weekly Activity Status (CWS). The CWS of a person is the activity status obtained during a reference period of seven days preceding the date of the survey. As per CWS status, a person is considered as unemployed in a week if he did not work even for at least one hour on any day during the reference week but sought or was available for work. In contrast, the headline numbers on employment-unemployment in the annual PLFS reports are reported based on the usual activity status. Usual activity status relates to the activity status of a person during the reference period of the last 365 days preceding the date of the survey. |
To contain the spread of COVID-19, a nationwide lockdown was imposed from late March till May 2020. During the lockdown, severe restrictions were placed on the movement of individuals and economic activities were significantly halted barring the activities related to essential goods and services. Unemployment rate in urban areas rose to 20.9% during the April-June quarter of 2020, more than double the unemployment rate in the same quarter the previous year (8.9%). Unemployment rate refers to the percentage of unemployed persons in the labour force. Labour force includes persons who are either employed or unemployed but seeking work. The lockdown restrictions were gradually relaxed during the subsequent months. Unemployment rate also saw a decrease as compared to the levels seen in the April-June quarter of 2020. During the October-December quarter of 2020 (latest data available), unemployment rate had reduced to 10.3%. However, it was notably higher than the unemployment rate in the same quarter last year (7.9%).
Figure 1: Unemployment rate in urban areas across all age groups as per current weekly activity status (Figures in %)
Note: PLFS includes data for transgenders among males.
Sources: Quarterly Periodic Labour Force Survey Reports, Ministry of Statistics and Program Implementation; PRS.
Recovery post-national lockdown uneven in case of females
Pre-COVID-19 trends suggest that the female unemployment rate has generally been higher than the male unemployment rate in the country (7.3% vs 9.8% during the October-December quarter of 2019, respectively). Since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, this gap seems to have widened. During the October-December quarter of 2020, the unemployment rate for females was 13.1%, as compared to 9.5% for males.
The Standing Committee on Labour (April 2021) also noted that the pandemic led to large-scale unemployment for female workers, in both organised and unorganised sectors. It recommended: (i) increasing government procurement from women-led enterprises, (ii) training women in new technologies, (iii) providing women with access to capital, and (iv) investing in childcare and linked infrastructure.
Labour force participation
Persons dropping in and out of the labour force may also influence the unemployment rate. At a given point of time, there may be persons who are below the legal working age or may drop out of the labour force due to various socio-economic reasons, for instance, to pursue education. At the same time, there may also be discouraged workers who, while willing and able to be employed, have ceased to seek work. Labour Force Participation Rate (LFPR) is the indicator that denotes the percentage of the population which is part of the labour force. The LFPR saw only marginal changes throughout 2019 and 2020. During the April-June quarter (where COVID-19 restrictions were the most stringent), the LFPR was 35.9%, which was lower than same in the corresponding quarter in 2019 (36.2%). Note that female LFPR in India is significantly lower than male LFPR (16.6% and 56.7%, respectively, in the October-December quarter of 2019).
Figure 2: LFPR in urban areas across all groups as per current weekly activity status (Figures in %)
Note: PLFS includes data for transgenders among males.
Sources: Quarterly Periodic Labour Force Survey Reports, Ministry of Statistics and Program Implementation; PRS.
Measures taken by the government for workers
The Standing Committee on Labour in its report released in August 2021 noted that 90% of workers in India are from the informal sector. These workers include: (i) migrant workers, (ii) contract labourers, (iii) construction workers, and (iv) street vendors. The Committee observed that these workers were worst impacted by the pandemic due to seasonality of employment and lack of employer-employee relationship in unorganised sectors. The Committee recommended central and state governments to: (i) encourage entrepreneurial opportunities, (ii) attract investment in traditional manufacturing sectors and developing industrial clusters, (iii) strengthen social security measures, (iv) maintain a database of workers in the informal sector, and (v) promote vocational training. It took note of the various steps taken by the central government to support workers and address the challenges and threats posed by the COVID-19 pandemic (applicable to urban areas):
The central and state governments have also taken various other measures, such as increasing spending on infrastructure creation and enabling access to cheaper lending for businesses, to sustain economic activity and boost employment generation.
On March 22, Bihar registered its first two cases of the new coronavirus disease (COVID-19), one of whom died the same day. Since then, the number of cases has increased steadily. As of April 19, Bihar has 86 confirmed cases of COVID-19, of which 47 are active cases and 37 have recovered. 33 new cases have been registered since last week. One more death has been registered since March 22.
Given the highly contagious nature of the disease, on March 22, the Government of Bihar announced a state-wide lockdown till March 31. This was followed by a nation-wide lockdown enforced by the central government between March 25 and April 14, now extended up to May 3. During the lockdown, severe restrictions have been placed on the movement of individuals. Establishments have remained closed, except those providing essential goods and services. Restrictions are likely to be relaxed in less-affected districts post-April 20.
In this blog, we look at key measures taken by the state government in response to COVID-19 so far.
Early-stage: screening of travellers, awareness on precautionary measures
The initial responses from the state government were aimed towards: (i) raising awareness about precautionary measures to be taken against the disease, and (ii) screening of international travellers. In this context, on February 25, the Bihar State Health Society issued advisories for: (i) measures to be taken in schools and colleges, and (ii) reporting of airline passengers and tourists with symptomatic cases to the district health administration. On March 11, 104 Call Centre was designated as the COVID-19 control room, to address public queries related to the disease.
Prior to lockdown: limiting mass gatherings, mobilisation of the public health system
Limiting mass gatherings
Between March 13 and March 18, the state government issued orders to shut down various premises until March 31. These include Anganwadi centres, educational institutions, and commercial establishments such as cinema halls, parks, and shopping malls. The government staff was directed to come to office on alternate days. Gathering of more than 50 persons at one place was prohibited including any mass family gathering (except marriages). The transport department was asked to restrict both public and private transport.
Healthcare measures
On March 13, the government issued directions to: (i) ensure availability of 100 extra ventilators in the government hospitals, (ii) arrange for testing of COVID-19 in AIIMS, Patna and PMCH, Patna hospitals, and (iii) cancel leaves of all employees of the Health Department, and (iv) strengthen screening of travellers entering through the Bihar-Nepal border.
On March 17, the Health Department issued The Bihar Epidemic Diseases, COVID-19 Regulation 2020 under The Epidemic Diseases Act, 1897. The Act provides for better prevention of the spread of dangerous epidemic diseases. These regulations specify the protocol to be followed in both private and government hospitals for screening and treatment of COVID-19 patients. It also empowers the district administration to take containment measures including sealing of specific areas and conducting surveillance for COVID-19 cases. It makes spreading of rumour or unauthenticated information with mala fide intent a punishable offence.
Welfare measures
On March 16, the Chief Minister announced that treatment costs for COVID-19 for residents of Bihar will be sponsored from the Chief Minister Medical Assistance Fund. Moreover, the state government will provide assistance of four lakh rupees to the family of a person dying due to COVID-19.
The government issued directions to provide direct cash transfer in place of the food provided under the Mid-Day Meal scheme in schools, and at Anganwadi centres.
Essential goods and services
On March 21, the Food and Consumer Protection Department directed the district administration to ensure implementation of the Bihar Essential Article (Display of Prices and Stocks) Order, 1977. The Order requires sellers of specified items to display stock and price for the public’s reference. The specified items include food items, edible oilseeds, and petroleum products. The Department also directed the district administration to send proposals for adding any new items to the list of specified items.
During lockdown: strengthening medical response, welfare measures
Upon announcement of the lockdown on March 22, state-level and district-level coordination committees were set up. During the lockdown, the state government’s measures have been aimed towards: (i) strengthening the medical response in the state, (ii) providing relief to various sections of society from issues being faced during the lockdown, and (iii) addressing difficulties with the supply of essential goods and services.
Healthcare measures
On March 25, the Health Department constituted the Bihar COVID-19 Emergency Response Team which is responsible for the control and coordination of all health-related response.
Protocols for containment and treatment: Directions have been issued to implement several guidelines related to containment and treatment measures. These include: (i) set up and operationalization of isolation centres and quarantine centres, (ii) containment plan to address local transmission and community transmission through cluster containment strategy, (iii) surveillance program for Influenza-like Illness (ILI) and Severe Acute Respiratory Illness (SARI), (iv) handling of waste generated during treatment/diagnosis/quarantine, and (v) sanitation of residence and nearby areas of a COVID-19 positive person.
Door-to-door screening campaign: On April 14, the Chief Minister issued directions to start door-to-door screening campaign for suspected cases in affected districts including Siwan, Begusarai, and Nalanda. Such screening campaign will also be run in districts in border-areas, and an area within 3 km radius of the residence of COVID-19 positive patients.
Increasing manpower: The government invited medical professionals including doctors, nurses, and paramedics to volunteer. It also directed the district administration to engage retired doctors, nurses, and paramedics from defence services for volunteer work. Leaves of all employees of the Health Department were cancelled until April 30. The Health Department deputed AYUSH practitioners to assist at isolation and quarantine centres.
Dedicated infrastructure for COVID-19: On April 5, certain government hospitals were designated as exclusive hospitals for treatment of COVID-19 patients. The Health Department also directed certain big private hospitals in Patna to stop OPD services.
Other health-related measures: On March 23, the state government announced payment of one-month basic salary as an incentive to all doctors and health workers. On April 13, the Health Department issued an order prohibiting spitting in public places by tobacco, cigarette, and Pan users. Further, the state government announced that it will procure test kits from the private sector.
Welfare measures
Relief package: On March 23, the state government announced a relief package for people affected due to lockdown. Key features of the relief package are:
ration of one-month to all ration cardholders for free,
one-time cash transfer of Rs 1,000 per family to ration cardholders,
payment of pensions for three months in advance to all pensioners including pension for old age persons, widows, and physically challenged, and
release of pending scholarships to all students.
Help for migrants: On March 26, Rs 100 crore was allocated from the Chief Minister Relief Fund to provide aid to the migrants from Bihar stuck in other parts of the country due to the lockdown. On April 2, the state government announced that a one-time cash transfer of Rs 1,000 will be provided to the migrants. On April 13, an additional Rs 50 crore was allocated from the Relief Fund for this purpose. State-wise nodal officers have been appointed for coordination of relief efforts for migrants. The state government is running 10 food centres in Delhi to help migrants from Bihar.
Relief camps: On March 28, the state government decided to start relief camps along the border (including Nepal border) offering food, shelter, and medical help to persons coming in the state. Community kitchens and relief camps have been started in government school campuses to provide food and shelter.
Electricity tariff: On April 8, the State Cabinet approved the proposals for: (i) reducing electricity tariff for domestic and agricultural consumers by 10 paise per unit and (ii) waiving the monthly meter fee.
Measures for businesses and agricultural activities
The state government provided certain relaxations to businesses in matters related to taxation. These include:
extension in the deadline for payment of GST from March 31 to June 30, no interest or penalty charges to be levied for late payment in certain cases,
three-month extension in the deadline for one-time settlement scheme for pre-GST tax disputes, and
cancellation of orders regarding attachment of bank accounts of certain tax defaulters.
On April 16, the Chief Minister issued directions to start procurement of wheat through the Primary Agriculture Credit Society (PACS).
Essential goods and services
Various departments issued guidelines to the district administration to facilitate operational continuity of essential goods and services including (i) food items, (ii) seeds, fertilisers, and other agriculture-related items, (iii) livestock fodder, and (iv) petroleum products.
On March 27, the Food and Consumer Protection Department brought certain new items under the purview of The Bihar Essential Article (Display of Prices and Stocks) Order, 1977. These include: (i) wheat and wheat products, (ii) masks and hand sanitisers, and (iii) potato and onion.
Other Measures
Education: On April 8, the cabinet approved the proposal to promote students of Class I to XI (except class X) without annual examination.
Legislature: Salaries of MLAs and MLCs have been reduced by 15% for one year. The amount will be donated to the state’s Corona relief fund.
Labour and employment: On April 16, the Chief Minister issued directions to resume public works under the Saat Nischay Programme, Jal Jeevan Hariyali Yojana, and MNREGA.
For more information on the spread of COVID-19 and the central and state government response to the pandemic, please see here.
