The President addressed the Parliament after the 2009 Lok Sabha Elections on 4th June 2009. She also addressed Parliament on 22nd February 2010, as well as on 21st February 2011. The tables below highlight some items from the agenda of the central government as outlined in these speeches, as well as the initiatives undertaken with respect to these agenda items. Table 1: Some Items from the President’s Address to Parliament on 4th June 2009
| Agenda Items outlined in the President’s Speech | Current Status |
| Establishment of National Counter-Terrorism Centre | Proposed launch of NCTC in March 2011 on hold |
| Enactment of legislation for prevention of communal violence | Communal Violence Bill 2005 pending in Parliament. New bill drafted by NAC but not introduced in Parliament |
| Unique Identity Card scheme to be implemented in three years | Unique Identification Authority of India created under Planning Commission on 28 January 2009. Bill to give statutory status pending in Parliament |
| Establishment of a regulator for the pension sector | Bill introduced in Lok Sabha on 24 March 2011 |
| Convergence of NREGA with other programs; expansion of works permitted; independent monitoring and grievance redressal | |
| Rashtriya Swasthya Bima Yojana to cover all families below the poverty line in five years | |
| Enactment of Right to Free and Compulsory Education Bill | Bill passed in 2009 and brought into force on 1 April 2009 |
| Madhyamik Shiksha Abhiyan to universalize access to secondary education | Rashtriya Madhyamik Shiksha Abhiyan launched in March 2009 |
| National Mission for Female Literacy to make every woman literate in five years | National Literacy Mission recast in 2009 to focus on female literacy |
| Construction of 1.2 crore rural houses under Indira Awas Yojana in five years | |
| Introduction of Rajiv Awas Yojana for slum dwellers and urban poor | Phase I approved by Cabinet on 2 June 2011 |
| Enactment of National Food Security Act | Introduced in Lok Sabha on 22 December 2011 |
| Enactment of Amendment Bill to Land Acquisition Act and Rehabilitation and Resettlement Bill | Land Acquisition, Rehabilitation and Resettlement Bill 2011 introduced in Lok Sabha on 7 September 2011 |
| Enactment of Women’s Reservation Bill | Passed by Rajya Sabha, pending in Lok Sabha |
| Constitutional Amendment for 50 percent reservation for women in panchayats and urban local bodies | Two Bills introduced in Lok Sabha in November 2009; both pending in Parliament |
| Amendment of RTI to provide for disclosure by government in all non-strategic areas | |
| Model Public Services Law to be drawn up in consultation with states | Right of Citizens for Time Bound Delivery of Goods and Services and Redressal of their Grievance Bill, 2011 introduced in Lok Sabha on 20 December 2011 |
| Introduction of Goods and Services Tax | Constitutional Amendment Bill introduced in Lok Sabha on 22 March 2011 |
| National Council for Human Resources in Health | Introduced in Rajya Sabha on 22 December 2011 |
| National Council for Higher Education | Bill introduced in Rajya Sabha on 28 December 2011 |
*Note: Blank cells indicate that PRS has not been able to find official information in the public domain. Table 2: Some Items from the President’s speech to Parliament on 22nd February 2010
| Agenda Items outlined in the President’s Speech | Current Status |
| Introduction of legislation to ensure food security | Introduced in Lok Sabha on 22 December 2011 |
| Rural teledensity of 40 percent by 2014 | Rural teledensity of 33% as of February 2011 |
| Introduction of Rajiv Awas Yojana for urban poor and slum dwellers | Phase I approved by Cabinet on 2 June 2011 |
| Disposal of remaining claims under the Scheduled Tribes and Other Traditional Forest Dwellers Act | |
| Introduction of amendment to the Wakf Act | Passed by Lok Sabha; pending in Rajya Sabha |
| Enactment of Communal Violence (Prevention, Control and Rehabilitation of Victims) Bill, 2005 | Pending in Rajya Sabha since 2005 |
| Enactment of Women’s Reservation Bill | Passed by Rajya Sabha; pending in Lok Sabha |
| Constitutional amendments for 50 percent reservation for women in panchayats and urban local bodies | Two Bills introduced in Lok Sabha in November 2009; both pending in Parliament |
| Establishment of National Council for Higher Education and Research | Higher Education and Research Bill, 2011 introduced in Rajya Sabha on 28 December 2011 |
| Legislation for facilitating participation of foreign academic institutions in the education sector | Foreign Educational Institutions Bill, 2010 introduced in Lok Sabha on 3 May 2010 |
| Voting rights for Indian citizens living abroad | Bill passed. NRIs can vote at the place of residence that is mentioned in their passport |
Table 3: Some Items from the President’s speech to Parliament on 21st February 2011
| Agenda Items outlined in the President’s Speech | Current Status |
| Enactment of Food Security Law | Introduced in Lok Sabha on 22 December 2011 |
| Whistleblower Bill | Bill passed by Lok Sabha; pending in Rajya Sabha |
| Enactment of Judicial Standards and Accountability Bill | Introduced in Lok Sabha on 1 December 2010 |
| Enactment of new Mines and Minerals Bill | Introduced in Lok Sabha on 12 December 2011 |
| Rural teledensity of 40 percent by 2014 | Rural teledensity of 33% as of February 2011 |
| Construction of 1.2 crore rural houses during 2009-14 | |
| Enactment of Women’s Reservation Bill | Passed by Rajya Sabha; pending in Lok Sabha |
| Introduction of Bill regarding protection of children from sexual offences | Introduced in Rajya Sabha on 23 March 2011 |
| Introduction of Biotechnology Regulatory Authority of India Bill | Not introduced till date |
By Rohit and Jhalak Some Rajya Sabha seats will be contested over the next year. The Presidential elections are also scheduled to be held in 2012. The recent assembly elections has implications for both these elections. The Presidential elections will depend on the strenght in the assemblies, in Lok Sabha and in Rajya Sabha (which could change over the next year). Implications for Rajya Sabha Elections The composition of Rajya Sabha may undergo some changes. A total of 12 Rajya Sabha seats are up for election in 2011. This includes 6 seats from West Bengal, 3 from Gujarat and 1 each from Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu and Goa. Another 65 seats, across 18 states, go for elections in early 2012. The largest chunk of these seats comes from UP(10), followed by Andhra Pradesh(6), Bihar(6) and Maharashtra(6). Since Rajya Sabha members are elected by the elected members of the Legislative Assembly of the State, a change in the composition of the assembly can affect the election outcome. We used the current assembly compositions to work out scenarios for Rajya Sabha in 2011 and 2012. There could be alliances between parties for the Rajya Sabha elections, so we have estimated a range for each grouping (Scenario I and II) for 2012. See Notes [1] and [2].
| Parties/ Coalitions | 2010 | Scenario 2011 | Scenario 2012 | |
| I | II | |||
| UPA | 89 | 94 | 95 | 97 |
| NDA | 65 | 65 | 67 | 66 |
| Left | 22 | 19 | 14 | 14 |
| BSP | 18 | 18 | 19 | 19 |
| SP | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 |
| AIADMK | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| BJD | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 |
| Other parties | 18 | 18 | 20 | 19 |
| Independent | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 |
| Nominated | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| Total | 241 | 245 | 245 | 245 |
Implications for the election of the President The President is elected in accordance with the provisions of Article 54 and 55 of the Constitution. The electorate consists of the elected members of Lok Sabha, Rajya Sabha and all Legislative Assemblies. Each MP/ MLA's vote has a pre-determined value based on the population they represent. The election is held in accordance with the system of proportional representation by means of a single transferable vote. The winning candidate must secure at least 50% of the total value of votes polled. (For details, refer to this Election Commission document). There is no change in the Lok Sabha composition (unless there are bye-elections). Position in Legislative Assemblies After the recent round of assembly elections, the all-India MLA count adds up to:
| UPA | 1613 |
| NDA | 1106 |
| Left | 205 |
| BSP | 246 |
| AIADMK | 155 |
| BJD | 103 |
| SP | 95 |
| Others | 597 |
The above numbers can now be used to estimate the value of votes polled by each coalition. See Note [3]:
| Value of votes cast | Scenario - 1 | Scenario - 2 |
| UPA | 439,437 | 440,853 |
| NDA | 307,737 | 307,029 |
| Left | 51,646 | 51,646 |
| BSP | 77,243 | 77,243 |
| SP | 38,531 | 38,531 |
| AIADMK | 36,392 | 36,392 |
| BJD | 28,799 | 28,799 |
| Others | 119,097 | 118,389 |
| Total | 1,098,882 | 1,098,882 |
| Min. to be elected | 549,442 | 549,442 |
The UPA has the highest value of votes polled but the figure is not sufficient to get its candidate elected. Assuming that there are at most three candidates with significant support (UPA, NDA, and Left/Third Front), the winner will be the one who manages to bridge the gap with second preference votes. On this factor, the UPA backed candidate is likely to hold the edge over others. Notes: [1] At present, there are four vacant seats in Rajya Sabha (1 Maharashtra, 1 TN, 1 WB and 1 Nominated). It is assumed that all these seats are filled up in 2011. [2] Three of the 11 nominated members in the current Rajya Sabha have declared their party affiliation as INC. These have been included in the UPA count in the above analysis. For the sake of simplicity, it is assumed that members who get nominated in 2011/ 12 are not aligned to any party/ coalition. [3] The above analysis is based on the assumption that the next set of assembly elections happen after the Presidential election.
