The President addressed the Parliament after the 2009 Lok Sabha Elections on 4th June 2009. She also addressed Parliament on 22nd February 2010, as well as on 21st February 2011. The tables below highlight some items from the agenda of the central government as outlined in these speeches, as well as the initiatives undertaken with respect to these agenda items. Table 1: Some Items from the President’s Address to Parliament on 4th June 2009
| Agenda Items outlined in the President’s Speech | Current Status |
| Establishment of National Counter-Terrorism Centre | Proposed launch of NCTC in March 2011 on hold |
| Enactment of legislation for prevention of communal violence | Communal Violence Bill 2005 pending in Parliament. New bill drafted by NAC but not introduced in Parliament |
| Unique Identity Card scheme to be implemented in three years | Unique Identification Authority of India created under Planning Commission on 28 January 2009. Bill to give statutory status pending in Parliament |
| Establishment of a regulator for the pension sector | Bill introduced in Lok Sabha on 24 March 2011 |
| Convergence of NREGA with other programs; expansion of works permitted; independent monitoring and grievance redressal | |
| Rashtriya Swasthya Bima Yojana to cover all families below the poverty line in five years | |
| Enactment of Right to Free and Compulsory Education Bill | Bill passed in 2009 and brought into force on 1 April 2009 |
| Madhyamik Shiksha Abhiyan to universalize access to secondary education | Rashtriya Madhyamik Shiksha Abhiyan launched in March 2009 |
| National Mission for Female Literacy to make every woman literate in five years | National Literacy Mission recast in 2009 to focus on female literacy |
| Construction of 1.2 crore rural houses under Indira Awas Yojana in five years | |
| Introduction of Rajiv Awas Yojana for slum dwellers and urban poor | Phase I approved by Cabinet on 2 June 2011 |
| Enactment of National Food Security Act | Introduced in Lok Sabha on 22 December 2011 |
| Enactment of Amendment Bill to Land Acquisition Act and Rehabilitation and Resettlement Bill | Land Acquisition, Rehabilitation and Resettlement Bill 2011 introduced in Lok Sabha on 7 September 2011 |
| Enactment of Women’s Reservation Bill | Passed by Rajya Sabha, pending in Lok Sabha |
| Constitutional Amendment for 50 percent reservation for women in panchayats and urban local bodies | Two Bills introduced in Lok Sabha in November 2009; both pending in Parliament |
| Amendment of RTI to provide for disclosure by government in all non-strategic areas | |
| Model Public Services Law to be drawn up in consultation with states | Right of Citizens for Time Bound Delivery of Goods and Services and Redressal of their Grievance Bill, 2011 introduced in Lok Sabha on 20 December 2011 |
| Introduction of Goods and Services Tax | Constitutional Amendment Bill introduced in Lok Sabha on 22 March 2011 |
| National Council for Human Resources in Health | Introduced in Rajya Sabha on 22 December 2011 |
| National Council for Higher Education | Bill introduced in Rajya Sabha on 28 December 2011 |
*Note: Blank cells indicate that PRS has not been able to find official information in the public domain. Table 2: Some Items from the President’s speech to Parliament on 22nd February 2010
| Agenda Items outlined in the President’s Speech | Current Status |
| Introduction of legislation to ensure food security | Introduced in Lok Sabha on 22 December 2011 |
| Rural teledensity of 40 percent by 2014 | Rural teledensity of 33% as of February 2011 |
| Introduction of Rajiv Awas Yojana for urban poor and slum dwellers | Phase I approved by Cabinet on 2 June 2011 |
| Disposal of remaining claims under the Scheduled Tribes and Other Traditional Forest Dwellers Act | |
| Introduction of amendment to the Wakf Act | Passed by Lok Sabha; pending in Rajya Sabha |
| Enactment of Communal Violence (Prevention, Control and Rehabilitation of Victims) Bill, 2005 | Pending in Rajya Sabha since 2005 |
| Enactment of Women’s Reservation Bill | Passed by Rajya Sabha; pending in Lok Sabha |
| Constitutional amendments for 50 percent reservation for women in panchayats and urban local bodies | Two Bills introduced in Lok Sabha in November 2009; both pending in Parliament |
| Establishment of National Council for Higher Education and Research | Higher Education and Research Bill, 2011 introduced in Rajya Sabha on 28 December 2011 |
| Legislation for facilitating participation of foreign academic institutions in the education sector | Foreign Educational Institutions Bill, 2010 introduced in Lok Sabha on 3 May 2010 |
| Voting rights for Indian citizens living abroad | Bill passed. NRIs can vote at the place of residence that is mentioned in their passport |
Table 3: Some Items from the President’s speech to Parliament on 21st February 2011
| Agenda Items outlined in the President’s Speech | Current Status |
| Enactment of Food Security Law | Introduced in Lok Sabha on 22 December 2011 |
| Whistleblower Bill | Bill passed by Lok Sabha; pending in Rajya Sabha |
| Enactment of Judicial Standards and Accountability Bill | Introduced in Lok Sabha on 1 December 2010 |
| Enactment of new Mines and Minerals Bill | Introduced in Lok Sabha on 12 December 2011 |
| Rural teledensity of 40 percent by 2014 | Rural teledensity of 33% as of February 2011 |
| Construction of 1.2 crore rural houses during 2009-14 | |
| Enactment of Women’s Reservation Bill | Passed by Rajya Sabha; pending in Lok Sabha |
| Introduction of Bill regarding protection of children from sexual offences | Introduced in Rajya Sabha on 23 March 2011 |
| Introduction of Biotechnology Regulatory Authority of India Bill | Not introduced till date |
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has decided to conduct an off-cycle meeting today to discuss the failure to meet the inflation target under Section 45ZN of the Reserve Bank of India Act, 1934. As per the Reserve Bank of India Act (RBI), 1934, MPC is required to meet at least four times each year, to discuss the macroeconomic issues in the country, and take policy decisions to address those. This is the second time MPC has conducted an off-cycle meeting in 2022-23. The meeting is scheduled in light of inflation being consistently high for nine consecutive months.
In this blog, we discuss what the inflation targeting framework is, examine retail and wholesale prices, and the divergence between them.
What is the inflation targeting framework, and what happens if inflation is persistently high?
In 2016, Parliament amended the RBI Act, 1934 to change the monetary policy, and introduce an inflation targeting framework. This framework prioritises price stability to achieve sustainable GDP growth. Price stability allows investors to confidently invest their money for productive activities, without worrying about it losing value. Price stability also maintains the purchasing power of consumers, i.e., the ability to purchase a good (or service) with a given amount of money.
As per the new framework, the central government, in consultation with RBI sets: (i) an inflation target, and (ii) an upper and lower tolerance level for retail inflation. The target has been set at 4%, with an upper tolerance limit of 6% and a lower tolerance limit of 2%. The upper and lower limits indicate that although it is desirable for inflation to be close to 4%, deviation between these limits is acceptable. The target and bands are revised every five years. In March 2021, the existing targets were carried forward.
Retail inflation has been above 6% for the past nine months, and it has been above 4% from October 2019 onwards (See Figure 1).
Figure 1: Consumer price index (year-on-year; in percentage)
Sources: Database on Indian Economy, Reserve Bank of India; PRS.
If inflation is above or below the prescribed limits for three quarters, RBI must submit a report to the central government explaining why prices have been rising (or falling) persistently, what will be done to correct that, and an estimate as to when the target will be achieved.
The MPC uses tools such as interest rates to control the level of inflation in the economy. One such rate is the policy repo rate, which is the rate at which RBI lends money to banks. An increase in the policy repo rate makes borrowing money more costly, and hence is expected to control inflation by reducing the money supply. MPC increased this rate from 4% in April 2022 to 4.4% in May 2022, to 4.9% in June 2022, to 5.4% in August 2022, and to 5.9% in September 2022.
Breaking down the Consumer Price Index and the Wholesale Price Index
Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the general prices of goods and services such as food, clothing, and fuel over time. Retail inflation is calculated as the change in the CPI over a period of time. Goods and services such as petrol, food products, health, and education are considered for its calculation, which are assigned different weights (See Table 1). Between February 2022 and August 2022, the average annual inflation was 6.9%. The rise in prices of subcomponents of the CPI during this period is indicated in Table 2.
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Table 1: Assigned weights for the calculation of CPI
Sources: MOSPI; PRS. |
Table 2: Average inflation of some CPI components
Sources: Database on Indian Economy, RBI; PRS. |
CPI is not the only index that measures inflation in an economy. The Wholesale Price Index (WPI) measures the wholesale prices of goods. A change in wholesale prices reflects wholesale inflation. Table 3 indicates the weights assigned to goods for calculating the WPI. Manufactured goods include metals, chemicals, food products, and textiles.
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Primary articles (23%) include food articles, and crude petroleum and natural gas. Fuel and power (12%) include mineral oils, electricity, and coal. WPI has remained above 10% from April 2021 onwards. It reached an all-time high of 17% in May 2022. This was driven by the inflation in metals, kerosene and petroleum coke, fruits and vegetables, and palm oil. |
Table 3:Assigned weights for the
Sources: Ministry of Commerce and Industry; PRS. |
Why has WPI inflation been consistently above CPI inflation?
Movements in the WPI have an impact on the CPI. For almost a year and half, CPI inflation has remained below WPI inflation. However, as per the design of the indices, it is expected that CPI would remain above WPI, and that any increase in WPI would reflect in the CPI after a time lag. This is because retail prices include taxes (as a percentage of price), while wholesale prices do not. Additionally, some of the goods in WPI act as inputs in the goods considered in CPI. An increase in input prices would lead to higher retail prices after a time lag.
We discuss possible reasons for why CPI has remained below WPI for a year and a half.
Figure 2: Consumer Price Index and Wholesale Price Index
Sources: Database on Indian Economy, Reserve Bank of India; PRS.
Composition of indices
As indicated in Table 2 and 3, the composition of the two indices varies. For instance, prices of manufacture of basic metals, chemicals, and machinery grew at an average rate of 13% between February 2021 and September 2022. They contribute 7% to the WPI. These are input goods for producing final goods and services such as automobiles, which are included in the CPI. The rise in prices of transport vehicles, communication devices, fuel for transport, and housing (CPI components) rose by 6% during this period.
The Ministry of Finance has observed that wholesale prices did not feed into retail prices (from March 2021 onwards) as wholesalers absorbed the rising input costs and did not pass them on to retailers. In August 2022, it noted that as retail prices are rising now, the pass-through may occur.
