The President addressed the Parliament on 12 March 2012.  Below are some items from the agenda of the central government as outlined in the speech. Legislation

  • A Bill to eliminate manual scavenging and insanitary latrines shall be introduced in Parliament.
  • New legislation is being considered for persons with disabilities, in order to replace the existing Act.
  • A Bill to provide for a uniform regulatory environment to protect consumer interests, enable speedy adjudication and ensure growth of the real estate sector shall be introduced.
  • A Bill to create a Civil Aviation Authority to ensure safe and affordable air services will be introduced this year.
  • The government is working on legislation for safeguarding and promoting the livelihoods of street vendors.
  • Amendments shall be made to the Child Labour (Prohibition and Regulation) Act to prohibit employment of children less than 14 years of age.
  • Government will aim for early enactment of the Land Acquisition, Rehabilitation and Resettlement Bill.

Workforce Development

  • 1500 new Industrial Training Institutes and 5000 Skill Development Centres shall be set up.  Skill training will be provided to 85 lakh people during 2012-13 and to 800 lakh people during the 12th Plan.
  • A National Mission for Teachers shall be established to improve teacher education and faculty development .
  • The National Urban Livelihoods Mission shall be launched for large-scale skill upgradation, entrepreneurship development and providing wage employment and self-employment opportunities.
  • The expenditure on Research & Development shall be increased from 1 percent to 2 percent of GDP.
  • A Higher Education Credit Guarantee Authority shall be set up in order to provide limited credit guarantees through risk pooling for educational loans.

Health

  • The government will increase national Plan and Non-Plan public expenditure on health to 2.5 percent of GDP by the end of the 12th Plan.
  • The National Rural Health Mission will be converted to a National Health Mission during the 12th Plan, which will also cover urban areas.  Around 7 crore families will be provided health insurance cover under the Rashtriya Swasthya Bima Yojana by the end of the 12th Plan.
  • A Multi-sectoral Nutrition Programme will be launched in 200 districts for maternal and child nutrition needs.
  • A Department for Disability Affairs and the National Council for Senior Citizens shall be set up.

Economy

  • Steps will be taken to reduce the gap of 10 million hectares between irrigation potential created and realized.
  • A scheme for Minimum Support Price for minor forest produce is being considered.
  • A roadmap to double merchandise exports to US$ 500 billion by 2013-14 has been prepared.
  • Public sector banks shall be recapitalized to maintain their financial health.
  • A scheme for promotion of the capital goods industry will be launched during the 12th Plan.
  • Rs 17,500 crore shall be provided to the Delhi Mumbai Industrial Corridor for infrastructure projects.
  • The National Electricity Fund shall be set up to provide interest subsidy on loans disbursed to State Power Utilities.
  • Installed capacity of nuclear plants shall be increased to 10,080 MW from 4,780 MW by the end of the 12th Plan.

By Rohit and Jhalak Some Rajya Sabha seats will be contested over the next year.  The Presidential elections are also scheduled to be held in 2012.  The recent assembly elections has implications for both these elections.  The Presidential elections will depend on the strenght in the assemblies, in Lok Sabha and in Rajya Sabha (which could change over the next year).  Implications for Rajya Sabha Elections The composition of Rajya Sabha may undergo some changes.  A total of 12 Rajya Sabha seats are up for election in 2011.  This includes 6 seats from West Bengal, 3 from Gujarat and 1 each from Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu and Goa.  Another 65 seats, across 18 states, go for elections in early 2012.  The largest chunk of these seats comes from UP(10), followed by Andhra Pradesh(6), Bihar(6) and Maharashtra(6). Since Rajya Sabha members are elected by the elected members of the Legislative Assembly of the State, a change in the composition of the assembly can affect the election outcome.  We used the current assembly compositions to work out scenarios for Rajya Sabha in 2011 and 2012.  There could be alliances between parties for the Rajya Sabha elections, so we have estimated a range for each grouping (Scenario I and II) for 2012.  See Notes [1] and [2]. 

Parties/ Coalitions 2010 Scenario 2011 Scenario 2012
      I II
UPA 89 94 95 97
NDA 65 65 67 66
Left 22 19 14 14
BSP 18 18 19 19
SP 5 5 6 6
AIADMK 4 5 5 5
BJD 6 6 5 5
Other parties 18 18 20 19
Independent 6 6 5 5
Nominated 8 9 9 9
Total 241 245 245 245

Implications for the election of the President The President is elected in accordance with the provisions of Article 54 and 55 of the Constitution.  The electorate consists of the elected members of Lok Sabha, Rajya Sabha and all Legislative Assemblies.  Each MP/ MLA's vote has a pre-determined value based on the population they represent.  The election is held in accordance with the system of proportional representation by means of a single transferable vote.  The winning candidate must secure at least 50% of the total value of votes polled. (For details, refer to this Election Commission document).  There is no change in the Lok Sabha composition (unless there are bye-elections). Position in Legislative Assemblies After the recent round of assembly elections, the all-India MLA count adds up to:

UPA 1613
NDA 1106
Left 205
BSP 246
AIADMK 155
BJD 103
SP 95
Others 597

The above numbers can now be used to estimate the value of votes polled by each coalition. See Note [3]:

Value of votes cast Scenario - 1 Scenario - 2
UPA 439,437 440,853
NDA 307,737 307,029
Left 51,646 51,646
BSP 77,243 77,243
SP 38,531 38,531
AIADMK 36,392 36,392
BJD 28,799 28,799
Others 119,097 118,389
Total 1,098,882 1,098,882
Min. to be elected 549,442 549,442

The UPA has the highest value of votes polled but the figure is not sufficient to get its candidate elected.  Assuming that there are at most three candidates with significant support (UPA, NDA, and Left/Third Front), the winner will be the one who manages to bridge the gap with second preference votes.  On this factor, the UPA backed candidate is likely to hold the edge over others.  Notes: [1] At present, there are four vacant seats in Rajya Sabha (1 Maharashtra, 1 TN, 1 WB and 1 Nominated).  It is assumed that all these seats are filled up in 2011. [2] Three of the 11 nominated members in the current Rajya Sabha have declared their party affiliation as INC.  These have been included in the UPA count in the above analysis.  For the sake of simplicity, it is assumed that members who get nominated in 2011/ 12 are not aligned to any party/ coalition. [3] The above analysis is based on the assumption that the next set of assembly elections happen after the Presidential election.