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By Rohit and Jhalak Some Rajya Sabha seats will be contested over the next year. The Presidential elections are also scheduled to be held in 2012. The recent assembly elections has implications for both these elections. The Presidential elections will depend on the strenght in the assemblies, in Lok Sabha and in Rajya Sabha (which could change over the next year). Implications for Rajya Sabha Elections The composition of Rajya Sabha may undergo some changes. A total of 12 Rajya Sabha seats are up for election in 2011. This includes 6 seats from West Bengal, 3 from Gujarat and 1 each from Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu and Goa. Another 65 seats, across 18 states, go for elections in early 2012. The largest chunk of these seats comes from UP(10), followed by Andhra Pradesh(6), Bihar(6) and Maharashtra(6). Since Rajya Sabha members are elected by the elected members of the Legislative Assembly of the State, a change in the composition of the assembly can affect the election outcome. We used the current assembly compositions to work out scenarios for Rajya Sabha in 2011 and 2012. There could be alliances between parties for the Rajya Sabha elections, so we have estimated a range for each grouping (Scenario I and II) for 2012. See Notes [1] and [2].
Parties/ Coalitions | 2010 | Scenario 2011 | Scenario 2012 | |
I | II | |||
UPA | 89 | 94 | 95 | 97 |
NDA | 65 | 65 | 67 | 66 |
Left | 22 | 19 | 14 | 14 |
BSP | 18 | 18 | 19 | 19 |
SP | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 |
AIADMK | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
BJD | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 |
Other parties | 18 | 18 | 20 | 19 |
Independent | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 |
Nominated | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
Total | 241 | 245 | 245 | 245 |
Implications for the election of the President The President is elected in accordance with the provisions of Article 54 and 55 of the Constitution. The electorate consists of the elected members of Lok Sabha, Rajya Sabha and all Legislative Assemblies. Each MP/ MLA's vote has a pre-determined value based on the population they represent. The election is held in accordance with the system of proportional representation by means of a single transferable vote. The winning candidate must secure at least 50% of the total value of votes polled. (For details, refer to this Election Commission document). There is no change in the Lok Sabha composition (unless there are bye-elections). Position in Legislative Assemblies After the recent round of assembly elections, the all-India MLA count adds up to:
UPA | 1613 |
NDA | 1106 |
Left | 205 |
BSP | 246 |
AIADMK | 155 |
BJD | 103 |
SP | 95 |
Others | 597 |
The above numbers can now be used to estimate the value of votes polled by each coalition. See Note [3]:
Value of votes cast | Scenario - 1 | Scenario - 2 |
UPA | 439,437 | 440,853 |
NDA | 307,737 | 307,029 |
Left | 51,646 | 51,646 |
BSP | 77,243 | 77,243 |
SP | 38,531 | 38,531 |
AIADMK | 36,392 | 36,392 |
BJD | 28,799 | 28,799 |
Others | 119,097 | 118,389 |
Total | 1,098,882 | 1,098,882 |
Min. to be elected | 549,442 | 549,442 |
The UPA has the highest value of votes polled but the figure is not sufficient to get its candidate elected. Assuming that there are at most three candidates with significant support (UPA, NDA, and Left/Third Front), the winner will be the one who manages to bridge the gap with second preference votes. On this factor, the UPA backed candidate is likely to hold the edge over others. Notes: [1] At present, there are four vacant seats in Rajya Sabha (1 Maharashtra, 1 TN, 1 WB and 1 Nominated). It is assumed that all these seats are filled up in 2011. [2] Three of the 11 nominated members in the current Rajya Sabha have declared their party affiliation as INC. These have been included in the UPA count in the above analysis. For the sake of simplicity, it is assumed that members who get nominated in 2011/ 12 are not aligned to any party/ coalition. [3] The above analysis is based on the assumption that the next set of assembly elections happen after the Presidential election.
With the spread of COVID-19, along with the central government, state governments have also announced several policy decisions to contain and prevent the spread of the virus. In this blog post, we summarise some of the key measures taken by the government of West Bengal in this regard as of April 18, 2020.
As of April 18, 2020, there have been 287 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in West Bengal. Of these, 55 have been discharged and 10 have died. To manage patients, there are 66 COVID hospitals, eight testing laboratories, and 582 institutional quarantine centres in the state.
Early response: Leading up to lockdown
Between January and February, the state government's efforts were aimed at raising awareness among citizens on COVID-19. These include advisories on observing precautionary measures, and informing citizens on travel restrictions, home isolation, and screening protocols for foreign returnees.
On March 2, the state government responded to the growing number of suspected cases by issuing guidelines for preparedness by government medical colleges and hospitals. These covered admission, isolation and management of suspected COVID-19 cases. These instructions were extended to private medical colleges and hospitals on March 7. A week later, the government issued protocols for monitoring travellers at various state checkposts by joint teams of state police and paramedical staff, and for reference of symptomatic patients to isolation facilities in the district. All cases had to be reported on a daily basis to district surveillance teams. The government also announced the closure of all educational institutions in the state (government and private) till March 31.
On March 16, the government notified the West Bengal Epidemic Disease COVID-19 Regulations, 2020. These regulations specify screening and treatment protocol for COVID-19 patients, and empower the district administration to take containment measures to curb the spread of COVID-19.
The next day, the state reported its first confirmed case of COVID-19. The government proceeded to issue orders: (i) for segregating isolation wards for suspected and confirmed COVID-19 cases, (ii) specifying treatment protocols for confirmed cases, (iii) establishing medical boards in all COVID-19 hospitals with representation from different medical disciplines, and (iv) establishing fever clinics for suspected patients. Anganwadi centres and creches were also closed, with provisions to ensure supply of two kilograms of rice and potatoes to each beneficiary.
On March 21, the government ordered the closure of certain establishments to restrict non-essential social gatherings till March 31, 2020. This included closure of restaurants, clubs, amusement parks, and museums. Further, all trains entering the state and inter-state buses were banned till March 31, 2020.
Subsequently, the government announced a lockdown. In addition to steps for physical containment, the government also undertook various health and welfare measures. These are detailed below.
Measures taken post-lockdown
On March 22, a lockdown was announced in 23 areas of the state until March 27. Restrictions during the lockdown included: (i) prohibition on public gatherings of over seven people, (ii) suspension of public transport, and (iii) closure of shops, commercial establishments, offices and factories. Establishments providing essential goods and services such as health services, print media, banks, groceries, and e-commerce delivery of food and groceries, were excluded from the restrictions. Over the next few weeks, steps were taken to expand these exemptions, and to regulate the movement of goods and services.
List of essential goods and services: On March 24, the lockdown was extended till March 31 in the entire state, and the exemptions were expanded to include industries producing coal, power, steel, or fertilisers. After the centre notified a 21-day lockdown, the list of exemptions in the state was gradually expanded to include agricultural operations, fish production, tea garden operations, and operations in krishak bazars for marketing agricultural produce. At the same time, restrictions were placed on hoarding of masks and hand sanitisers.
Last week, after the central government extended the lockdown till May 3, orders were passed for resumption of government offices from April 20 onwards at a strength of 25% of workforce. Similar permission was also granted for restricted operations in jute mills, and IT/IT enabled services.
Regulating movement of goods and services: A pass system was introduced on March 25 to regulate the movement of persons supplying essential goods and services. Transportation of non-essential cargo was prohibited till March 31, 2020. However, as a one-time measure, permission was granted on March 26 to such vehicles to reach their destination. Two days later, the government ordered for the seamless movement of commodities in all district borders and interstate areas.
Health Measures
On March 26, a Committee of Experts was constituted to advise on strategies for isolation, quarantine, testing, health infrastructure, and disease prevention. The Committee has been issuing protocols on clinical management of COVID-19 cases. The government also established various monitoring committees on setting up isolation hospitals, managing critical care, and to audit the cause of deaths related to COVID-19 patients.
To respond to the increasing number of patients, the government acquired private healthcare facilities in April. Further, to expand its testing capacity, the government recommended sample pooling for COVID-19 testing yesterday.
In addition to these measures, the government also issued several guidelines, advisories and orders on containment of the virus, patient handling and protecting healthcare workers. Some of these are detailed below:
For healthcare facilities: Advisory for setting up of isolation facilities, orders for establishment of fever clinics to segregate patients with severe symptoms, separation zones for suspected cases to protect healthcare personnel, and use of hydroxychloroquine for asymptomatic healthcare workers.
For government: Guidelines for cluster containment and treatment strategies to contain COVID-19 in hi-risk spots, directions for awareness generation among rural population for containment, and arranging for counselling sessions for quarantined patients.
Welfare/Austerity Measures
Creation of relief fund: The “West Bengal State Emergency Relief Fund” was created on March 23 to mobilise additional resources to cope with the emergency. On April 2, austerity measures were announced by the government. These include prohibition on announcement of new schemes, unless required in urgent public interest.
Distribution of food: Free entitlement of wheat and rice was announced on March 26 to beneficiaries under some food subsidy schemes (including the Antyodaya Anna Yojana) until September, 2020.
Measures for workers: Directions were notified in March for provisions on shelter, food, quarantine, wage payment, and continued tenancy for workers.
Free insurance cover was announced on April 1 for treatment of certain categories of persons, including heathcare workers, and police.
For more information on the spread of COVID-19 and the central and state government response to the pandemic, please see here.